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Innovation Watch Newsletter 4.23
November 12, 2005

ISSN: 1712-9834


In this issue...


Research on human genetics sheds light on human diversity and our history as a species. We extend the World Wide Web to other planets. Google pushes the envelope, and finds new competition. Texting redefines language. Bill Drayton, founder of Ashoka, soldiers on. New scenarios help us understand the future.

The code...

More than 200 researchers from six countries joined forces to map mutations in the human genome, using DNA obtained from 269 volunteers. They have just released the resulting genetic map, showing blocks of mutations -- known as haplotypes -- that are usually inherited as a group. The New Zealand Herald reports that more than a million small mutations have now been associated with a haplotype block. Researchers say that the study will dramatically reduce the time required to find the genes responsible for disease.

Mars calling...

Vint Cerf has a vision of an expanding Internet -- beyond the Earth. The solar system network -- called InterPlaNet -- is a serious project that has had to address such issues as signal delays, extraterrestrial domain names, and the location of communication satellites. ICANN has already set aside .mars and other planetary domains for this purpose. NASA and the European Space Agency will use future Mars missions to help move the vision forward.

Googling...

This year, the International Herald Tribune says, Google's advertising revenue will be more than $6 billion. Next year's revenues are expected to be $9.5 billion. The newspaper says that would make it number four in total ad sales by an American media company. Google already tailors web advertising to viewer interests. It will soon do the same for Internet-delivered television.

Google recently filed an application to provide free wireless access to the Internet in San Francisco. Analysts speculate that the company may support the service through online advertising that knows where users are located within the city.

Google's controversial plan to digitize books and make them available online is now facing competition. The German book trade association will provide selective access for search engines to books scanned by publishers. It may eventually allow readers to "borrow" books online. Reuters quotes Matthias Ulmer, the project leader: "We don't want Google to hold the texts in its servers; we want the publishers to keep them." In the United States, the Internet Archive and partners celebrated an open-source initiative to digitize books and make them widely available. The Archive will only scan books that are in the public domain.

The new literacy...

"Older forms, such as the book, are not defunct," a report issued by the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority in the UK says, "but readers need to acquire new literacy skills." Technology is changing the way we use language, it says, in new forms such as text messaging and multimedia.

Social change...

US News profiles Bill Drayton: Harvard, Oxford and Yale graduate; social entrepreneur; and founder of Ashoka. Created by Drayton in 1980 with $50,000, the philanthropic organization has a budget of more than $30 million today, and supports 1,600 "fellows" in 60 countries. Within five years, Drayton says, more than half of these fellows change national policy in their countries. His latest project is Youth Venture -- based on the belief that children are a powerful force for changing society.

Climate change...

Harvard Medical School, Swiss Re and the United Nations Development Programme have released a study describing scenarios for global climate change. Human health, the environment, and the economy are all at risk. The study outlined effects on the distribution and spread of infectious diseases; the frequency of extreme weather events; and impacts on forests, agriculture, water and marine habitat.

New scenarios...

Shell International's latest scenario planning exercise -- now published as The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 -- explores three dilemmas currently at play in the world: the simultaneous search for market efficiency, social cohesion and justice, and security. The report examines the trade-offs between these three objectives, and describes the resulting scenarios: Low Trust Globalization, Open Doors, and Flags.

Innovation inside...

In their new book, Insourcing Innovation: How to Transform Business as Usual into Business as Exceptional, David Silverstein, Neil DeCarlo and Michael Slocum show organizations how to make innovation a core competency -- by internalizing it and making it routine.

David Forrest


we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com


SCIENCE

U.S. Military Wants to Own the Weather - [Space.com] military officials and weather modification experts could be on the verge of joining forces to better gauge, react to, and possibly nullify future hostile forces churned out by Mother Nature.

Titan's Long-Sought Sea Revealed by Radar - [New Scientist] The first sea discovered on any surface other than Earth's may have been found on Saturn’s moon Titan. New radar images from the Cassini spacecraft, which made its eighth close approach to the moon on 7 September, have revealed what appears to be a very distinct shoreline, fed by meandering channels carved deeply in the surrounding terrain.

Genetic Defect May Help Predict Schizophrenia Risk - [Daily News Central] Researchers have learned that a gene that regulates dopamine levels in the brain is involved in the development of schizophrenia in children at high risk for the disorder, according to a study published in Nature Neuroscience.

Genetic Map that Could Unlock Secrets of Human Life - [New Zealand Herald] Whereas the human genome -- the basic genetic blueprint -- showed that everyone shares 99.9 per cent of their genes, it is the 0.1 per cent difference that can hold the clues to illnesses such as asthma, diabetes, dementia, heart disease and cancer. Scientists have completed the first phase of an ambitious project to tease apart these minute differences to begin to explain why some people develop serious diseases while others with a similar lifestyle remain healthy.

Comets Blasted Early Americans - [USA Today] A supernova could be the "quick and dirty" explanation for what may have happened to an early North American culture, a nuclear scientist said.

Trigger Discovered that Causes Stem Cells from Embryos to Start Developing into Organs - [News-Medical.net] Scientists have apparently discovered the chemical trigger that causes stem cells from embryos to start developing into organs, raising the possibility of parts of the body being able to repair their own damage.

Wild Gorillas Spotted Using Tools for First Time - [MSNBC] Two female gorillas have been photographed using sticks as tools to get through swampy areas, the first time the apes have been seen doing so in the wild, researchers reported.


TECHNOLOGY

Vint Cerf on the InterPlanet - [TechScape] In the second of TechScape’s three exclusive interviews with Vint Cerf, Bill Robinson investigates the story of the InterPlanet -- or Interplanetary Internet as it is sometimes called.

Search Engines for the Forgetful: New Firms Zero In on Tracking Items that Get Mislaid - [San Francisco Chronicle] Researchers are looking at using RFID and GPS technology that would make real-world objects as easy to locate as a casserole recipe on Google -- though such services will appear in the distant future, if ever, experts say.

Tokyo's Take on the Cars of the Future - [The Independent] Dog space in the dashboard, sideways parking, a front that becomes the back... John Simister on Japan's new wheezes.

Future Smart Cars Could Help to Cut Accidents - [MSNBC] Whether it is wafting lavender or citrus scents to calm drivers and keep them awake, or vibrating seat belts to get them to slow down, smart cars in the future could help reduce road accidents.

Snowboarders Stay Connected with Wireless Winter Wear - [PCMag] Embarking on a long term wireless integration collaboration, Burton Snowboards and Motorola Inc. recently revealed plans to launch a collection of Bluetooth-enabled winter gear for snowboarding tech types that want to stay connected.

A Virtual Dylan Dylan Thomas - [i-Newswire] Through the medium of 3D computer animation, Wales' favourite poet, has been recreated in virtual reality, performing his most popular poem to an audience in his home town of Swansea, on the anniversary of his death.

Interface Lift - [IEEE Spectrum] Sources for interface metaphors abound. In the past, we leaned heavily on the world of the office and its folders and desktops, because we thought we were building interfaces mainly for office workers. But today, information work and information workers are everywhere.


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

Globalisation Can Bust the Boom Cycle, says Roger Bootle - [The Guardian] When it comes to the long-term, Roger Bootle is a thorough optimist. He believes the truly global economy in prospect as the reach of the internet expands and China and India take their place in the world's markets, will allow division of labour on a grand scale.

Google Wants to Dominate Madison Avenue, Too - [International Herald Tribune] This year, Google will sell $6.1 billion in ads, nearly double what it sold last year, according to Anthony Noto, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. That is more advertising than is sold by any newspaper chain, magazine publisher or television network. By next year, Mr. Noto said, he expects Google to have advertising revenue of $9.5 billion.

Company Bids to Build Ad-Based Wireless Net for San Francisco - [ABC News] As with many municipal area network projects in the US, about a dozen companies -- from telecom companies to traditional Internet service providers -- have submitted proposals for the City by the Bay's planned network. But Google's plan, some industry watchers speculate, could bring about a new business model: a free network centered around online advertising that knows where users are within the city's limits.

German Publishers To Scan Books Online - [925M] The five-member German book trade association, Börsenverein, plans to build a digital indexing project called Volltextsuche Online. According to the International Herald Tribune report, the German project’s plan is about providing access to titles that still have a valid copyright instead of what other search engines have been trying to do which is digitizing out-of-copyright materials. The German association also hopes to at some point create its own search engine where readers can even borrow books online.

An Open-Source Rival to Google's Book Project - [ZDNet] When it comes to digitizing books, two stories appear to be unfolding: One is about open source, and the other, Google. Or so it seemed at a party held by the Internet Archive on Tuesday evening, when the nonprofit foundation and a parade of partners, including the Smithsonian Institution, Hewlett-Packard, Yahoo and Microsoft's MSN, rallied around a collective open-source initiative to digitize all the world's books and make them universally available.

Indian CEOs More Optimistic About Globalisation Than Others - [domain-b.com] Are American executives, who once relished being regarded as bruising street fighters, beginning to have second thoughts about globalisation? Timorous Indian executives, however, who just five years ago appeared to baulk at global competition arriving at their door step, now seem to be more gung-ho about it. This seems to be the finding of the McKinsey Global Survey of Business Confidence 2005.

More Employees Set to Opt for 'Binge Working' in Return for Extra Time Off - [Scotsman] More people are set to indulge in "binge working" -- undertaking a huge session in return for more time off, a report predicted. Workers will also only work when they are at their most productive, such as late at night or early in the morning -- known as "deep time", according to the study from Standard Life Bank and the Future Laboratory, which looked at 1000 workers and found many fed up with long hours.


SOCIETY

English 'Must Reflect Technology' - [BBC] English in schools must adapt to reflect the use of text messaging and communication via new technologies, a report says.

Debt of Gratitude - [The Star] As blogging gains popularity in the country, a new trend is fast emerging -- blogging for charity.

Who Will Take Care of an Older Population? - [USA Today] Americans are living longer and better than ever. The Census Bureau predicts the nation will have more than 1 million centenarians in 2050, up from 71,000 today. That's the good news. Now the bad: The cost of health care and retirement benefits of an aging population threatens to bankrupt the nation unless dramatic changes are made.

Baby Boomers Flex their Political Muscle - [The Guardian] The ageing of Britain, as the 'baby boomer' generation hits retirement, could cost Labour 10 seats at the next election, according to a new analysis. The liberal generation, raised on free love and Vietnam protests, is now worrying about binge drinking among young people, immigration and the decline of discipline, according to the report by Age Concern.

Can Immigration Save the Cities? - [EMagazine] Wausau, Wisconsin may seem like the furthest thing from a global mega-city, but the forces in play in this small city are echoes of the worldwide issues of population and immigration. Over the past decades Wausau has received a large influx of Hmong, a nomadic Laotian hill people.

Groups Target Human Trafficking in US - [ABC News] Trafficking is a stubborn problem and a staggering one worldwide, affecting an estimated 600,000 to 800,000 victims a year. Federal officials say 14,500 to 17,500 of them are trafficked to the United States, where the myriad forms of modern-day slavery present an elusive target for those trying to eradicate it.

Paint Company Shows Off Car Colours of the Future - [Mail and Guardian] Only a handful of people know what new vehicles will look like in 2009. But automotive paint supplier PPG Industries already has a good idea what colours those vehicles will be.


GLOBAL POLITICS

Entrepreneur For Social Change - [USNews] Through his global nonprofit, Ashoka: Innovators for the Public, based in Arlington, Va., Bill Drayton aims to find change-making leaders around the world, provide them with support and modest "social venture capital," and watch as they transform ingrained institutions and improve lives exponentially.

The Envy of Europe - [International Herald Tribune] European leaders want to know how Sweden and its Nordic neighbors, so heavily laden with cradle-to-grave welfare systems, float high above the struggling economies of much of the rest of the Continent.

Piggy Bank To The World - [Business Week] In a new paper, Kotlikoff and his two German co-authors, Hans Fehr and Sabine Jokisch, find that a flood of Chinese savings over the next 40 years could turn the anticipated capital shortages into capital gluts instead -- not just in the US, but in Europe and Japan as well.

The Failed States Index - [Foreign Policy] About 2 billion people live in countries that are in danger of collapse. In the first annual Failed States Index, Foreign Policy and the Fund for Peace rank the countries about to go over the brink.

It’s the Illicit Economy, Stupid - [Foreign Policy] Fifteen years ago, the trade in pirated goods was almost insignificant. Today, it is valued at $400 to $600 billion a year. No insurgency anywhere in the world seems to have much difficulty procuring the weapons it needs, which is one of the reasons that the illegal arms trade is worth $10 billion. International human trafficking comes to another $10 billion. Stolen art, according to Interpol, is worth $3 billion a year. In the last decade, all of these illegal international trades have grown in size and scope.

Why the Americas Have Drifted Apart - [Christian Science Monitor] Small trade blocs have formed as many countries, including Brazil and Argentina, resist what they say would be a US-dominated trade area. Neither are democracy's roots growing stronger, and in some countries they are threatened, warn some officials and experts.

China’s Latin American Motives - [The Globalist] China’s recent forays into Latin America haven’t gone unnoticed by the countries of the region -- or the hemisphere’s traditional superpower. In this Globalist Document, Alvaro Vargas Llosa explains that, while China’s moves have been met with equal parts fear and hope, China’s goals are purely economic -- and any attempt to find any deeper connection is off base.


ENVIRONMENT

German Nuclear Phase-Out - [BBC] As Britain gears up for a debate on the future of its nuclear industry, outgoing German environment minister Jurgen Trittin, a member of Germany's Green Party, explains to the BBC News website why he believes his country should consign atomic energy to the past.

Overfishing Imperils Hawaiian Ecosystem - [ABC News] Commercial fishing has sharply depleted numbers of several species in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and threatens the health of the pristine island chain's ecosystem, according to a private study.

Dutch Design Lets Homes Float on the Floodwaters - [Christian Science Monitor] After hurricane Katrina flooded the Gulf Coast, many US hydrologists, architects, and city planners looked to "the low countries" for water-wise guidance. But instead of continuing their prohibitively high-cost war against the sea, some Dutch architects are designing ways to live on, instead of fighting against, the rising tide.

Europe Study Shows Climate Risks - [BBC] Mediterranean and mountain regions of Europe will be hardest hit by the changes set to affect the continent's natural resources this century.

Study Shows Escalating Climate Change Impacts on Human Health, the Environment, and the Economy - [Science Daily] The Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, along with co-sponsors Swiss Re and the United Nations Development Programme, released a study showing that climate change will significantly affect the health of humans and ecosystems and these impacts will have economic consequences.

G20 Climate Summit Pushes Technology Not Targets - [World Business Council for Sustainable Development] The industrialised and developing nations that emit the most greenhouse gases have pledged to work together to develop and deploy 'clean technologies' to tackle climate change.

New Turbine May Boost Wind Power - [Wired] Recent howling winds have been like sweet music to one local company, which says its new vertical wind turbine is substantially more efficient than traditional propeller designs.


THE FUTURE

The New Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (PDF) - A tool to explore the many complex business environments in which companies work. Building on the 30-year track record of Shell's scenario teams, they open a path to deeper understanding of the trends, forces and tradeoffs that drive change and development.


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