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Innovation Watch Newsletter 4.21
October 15, 2005

ISSN: 1712-9834


In this issue...


Some of this week's highlights: the future of medicine, automobile technology, communications and entertainment, energy supply, and energy conservation. Tara Goth speculates on a society where women outnumber men. And Ray Kurzweil paints a future where the lines blur between biology and technology.

In the health sciences...

Researchers at the Macromolecular Biochemistry Research Centre in Montpellier, France, have used stem cells from mice to repair damaged heart muscle in sheep. Before they were transplanted, the cells were exposed to growth factors that caused them to develop into heart cells, and the sheep were given immunosuppressant drugs. The cells colonized damaged hearts in the sheep, cardiac function improved, and there was no sign of rejection.

An Australian scientist has created the first vaccine against cancer. Final clinical trials showed a 100% success rate. Experts say the drug has the potential to save 70% of the 250,000 lives lost globally each year to the disease. It provides immunity against the human papillomavirus that causes the disease for about 10 years.

Scientists in the United States have reconstructed the Spanish flu virus that killed tens of millions of people worldwide in 1918. They used small fragments of DNA obtained from a few rare tissue samples, taken from victims of the disease, to put together the puzzle. They believe that the virus originated in birds, and will use the reconstructed virus to better understand the bird flu that is now spreading in Southeast Asia.

Cars of the future...

The Times reports on new technologies that will soon appear in automobiles. The 2006 Honda Legend will include noise cancellation, to eliminate road and wind noise. The 2006 Honda Accord will include a camera that scans the road, anticipates changes in direction, and helps the driver to steer. BMW and DaimlerChrysler have developed a car-to-car networking system that relays messages about road conditions between cars. Other technology includes night vision, directional headlights, steering assist, electronic headlights, electronic handbrakes, and adaptive cruise control. Citroen has developed a car that parks itself. The new Mercedes S-class has more than 100 buttons.

Communications and entertainment...

The Economist says it's only a matter of time until all phone calls are free. eBay recently bought Skype, a company that has developed software to let people make free calls from their computer. Microsoft bought Teleo, and Yahoo! bought Dialpad, two other Skype-like firms. And AOL, Apple and others, the magazine says, have similar products. The Economist says Skype founder Niklas Zennstrom's vision is "to become the world's biggest and best platform for all communications -- text, voice or video -- from any internet-connected device." Residential voice-over-internet-protocol providers -- more than a thousand in the United States alone -- are also putting pressure on the traditional telephone business.

Wired magazine reports on the accelerating growth in video content -- a 36-fold increase in consumer-generated videos accessible on the Internet this year, and 31 million hours of video produced by industry every year that may soon be available online. Yahoo!, it says, is positioning to create a major competitor to the broadcast networks to take advantage of the explosion in consumer demand. The company is also developing new video search technology that uses pattern-matching to index visual features.

Vanishing males...

Writer Tara Goth muses in The Suffolk Standard on reports that there are 15% fewer male births in the U.S. population today than there were sixty years ago. And it appears that single women tend to give birth to more female babies. With tongue in cheek, she speculates on the consequences for society. The article includes links to the original background stories.

A sea of oil...

The Lexington Herald-Leader says Canada may have the answer to America's energy future. The oil sands in northern Alberta, extending over more than 54,000 square miles, hold 1.7 trillion barrels of oil, and some 176 billion barrels are already recoverable using today's technology. Production from the oil sands will exceed 1.1 million barrels a day this year. This is expected to double by 2010, and to reach 5 million barrels a day by 2035. Canada, the newspaper says, has already passed Saudi Arabia as the largest foreign supplier of crude oil and petroleum products to the United States.

Energy police...

The Telegraph says the Deputy Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is considering a drastic plan to conserve energy. Homeowners would be required to provide an annual accounting of energy used in their homes, and defend their use of fuel. Energy wardens would audit consumption. Britain needs to adopt a wartime mentality to deal with its dependence on imported energy, the plan's authors say. The security of the country might be at stake, they say, in a world where Middle East extremists could control production.

Ray Kurzweil...

We feature Ray Kurzweil's long-awaited book this week -- The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. A work of great depth and breadth, the book explores a fast-approaching future where boundaries blur between man and machine. Its predictions are at the same time fascinating and disturbing, and, if Ray Kurzweil's track record is any guide, likely to come true.

David Forrest


we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com


SCIENCE

Birthplace of Famous Mars Meteorite Pinpointed - [New Scientist] The original home of the world's most famous space rock, the Allen Hills Martian meteorite, has now been identified, thanks to data from the orbiting spacecraft Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey and a better understanding of cratering dynamics.

Embryonic Stem Cells Repair Broken Hearts - [New Scientist] Embryonic stem cells from mice can patch up damaged heart muscle in sheep. With hopes of using less controversial, adult-derived stem cells now appearing shaky, the results could pave the way for effective treatments for heart disease in people.

Asteroids Caused The Early Inner Solar System Cataclysm - [Space Daily] University of Arizona and Japanese scientists are convinced that evidence at last settles decades-long arguments about what objects bombarded the early inner solar system in a cataclysm 3.9 billion years ago.

Aussie Cure for Cervical Cancer - [Courier-Mail] AN Australian scientist has developed the world's first cancer vaccine -- a drug with the potential to save the lives of tens of thousands of women each year by preventing cervical cancer. The vaccine -- based on work started 15 years ago by Ian Frazer, director of the Centre for Immunology and Cancer Research at the University of Queensland -- received a huge boost when researchers reported a 100 per cent success rate in final trials.

Birds Led to 1918 Flu Pandemic - Say Scientists Who Re-Created the Virus - [Red Nova] It sounds like a sci-fi thriller. For the first time, scientists have made from scratch the Spanish flu virus that killed millions of people in 1918.

Common Brain Test May Predict Future Dementia - [newKerala.com] A common brain test of people appears to be able to predict whether they will develop dementia in future, says a study.

How Small is Too Small? Scientists Set Limit - [Hindustan Times] There's a limit to how tiny gadgets, devices and machines can get, scientists have claimed.


TECHNOLOGY

The Dream Factory - [Wired] From design to delivery, custom manufacturing is coming soon to a desktop near you. Writer Clive Thompson joins the fab Lab" revolution.

TV to Become Web-Like - [The Register] TV that's beamed over the net - is set to become the next big thing for boggle-eyed couch potatoes everywhere.

South Korea Invents Universal Game Engine - [kotaku.com] South Korea may be on the cusp of the next big thing in video games. The country claims to have come up with a new piece of software that will allow the same computer game to be played on a variety of devices.

Vending Machines - The Koban of the Future? - [asahi.com] Up to an estimated 5 million vending machines dot the nation, humming their little hum, dispensing drinks and cigarettes. Now imagine those innocuous machines harnessed to do good: to fight crime, to stand sentinel where no security guard goes.

NASA Develops Humanoid Robots for Future Space Missions - [Christian Science Monitor] NASA is developing sophisticated humanistic robotic machines -- akin to R2D2 of "Star Wars" fame -- that can do almost any kind of work a human can do, the director of the Johnson Space Center robotics division told a conference audience.

This is the Future, and it's Sneaking into Cars Today - [Times Online] A high tide of new technology is about to transform the motoring world.

Biometric ATMs, the Future? - [rediff.com] Colombia is one of the few places in the world where banks are using fingerprint biometrics, which verify people's identities based on their unique physical characteristics. Scanning fingerprints or irises to verify an ATM customer's identity has yet to penetrate the US banking market because of concerns about expense and privacy.


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

Sizing Up The Future Of Air Travel - [Space Daily] From private cabins with designer fabrics and en suite bathrooms in first class to on-screen virtual air attendants taking orders in economy, the future of air travel is going high-tech and high-style.

The Super Network - [Wired] A household with 300 cable or satellite channels has access to 7,000 hours of programming a day, almost 3 million per year. That's a lot, but it's only a fraction of the 31 million hours of total annual programming. Every major cable company is making investments to allow TV to be distributed over the Internet, giving you access to each one of those 31 million hours. And then there's this year's 36-fold explosion in consumer-generated video on the Internet.

The Meaning of Free Speech - [The Economist] The acquisition by eBay of Skype is a helpful reminder to the world's trillion-dollar telecoms industry that all phone calls will eventually be free.

Legal Outsourcing: The Next Big Thing - [Economic Times] The US legal market size was in the region of $200 bn in 2004. By end of 2004, over 12,000 legal jobs were expected to shift to low-cost countries, mainly India, according to Forrester Research.

Japanese Call Supersonic Jetliner Test a Success - [International Herald Tribune] Deep in the Australian outback, a Japanese team took a small step forward in its plan to build a supersonic commercial jet. The engineers, backed by the Japanese government and several companies, flew a small unmanned model of a supersonic jetliner in Woomera, South Australia

New Muscles in the Marketplace - [BBC] Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called Brics, are predicted to emerge as major world players by 2050.

Auto Industry Facing Uncertain Future - [WoodTV.com] It could be a chilly fall for the auto industry. Now that General Motors has ended it popular employee discount sales promotion, and with Ford and Chrysler scheduled to end theirs, the companies face what analyst's call a "sales hangover." Analysts predict General Motors' sales could fall as much as 30 percent. And Ford and Chrysler are likely to experience declines as well.


SOCIETY

Activists Bring the Digital Frontier to New Communities - [New Standard] A laptop and an antenna might not signify political activism to most, but in the Digital Age, they might soon become indispensable vehicles for social change.

Brothers Only Want to Change the World - [London Free Press] A few years ago Aaron and his older brother, Dev, were motivated by a family trip to India to start taking action to create social change. They didn't care that they were young or that they didn't have a lot of apparent resources -- they were inspired by what they saw and wanted to do something about it.

Today's Youth are Best-Educated, U.N. Says - [Seattle Times] Today's youth are the best-educated generation in history even though 130 million are still illiterate, according to a new UN report that urges greater investment to ensure universal primary schooling.

Aging World Population Presents Challenge for Future Young - [VOA News] The world population is growing, and it's also growing older. Researchers say birth and death rates are gradually falling worldwide, increasing the number and overall proportion of older people. For many societies, caring for all those aging citizens could be difficult.

Witness Blasts School District's Evolution Policy - [MSNBC] A school district is undermining science education by raising false doubts about evolution and offering “intelligent design” as an alternative explanation for life’s origins, a biologist testified at the start of a landmark trial.

Writers Sue Google Print Over Copyright - [Guardian] A writers' group representing more than 8,000 authors is suing Google for "massive copyright infringement" over its fledgling programme of digitising library books.

A World with Fewer Men - [Suffolk Standard] On June 21, 2005, National Public Radio aired a Consumer Health News segment titled “Fewer Boys Being Born in America” by Richard Knox. The piece addressed the increasing trend of female births over the past sixty years. Statistically, there are fifteen percent less men in today’s population, and as Knox pointed out -- 850,000 fewer men than if the rate stayed the same.


GLOBAL POLITICS

NASA Seeks Clearance to Buy Russian Technology - [Washington Post] America's crippled human spaceflight program, unable to count on flying the space shuttle, could lose the use of Russian spacecraft as well within a few weeks, forcing US astronauts to abandon the international space station and effectively grounding them for the foreseeable future.

US Energy Future Rests with Development of Canadian Oil Sands - [Lexington Herald-Leader] Along a giant patch of Canada's Far North, where moose outnumber people, a vital part of America's energy future seeps out of riverbanks and is hidden below soft prairie grass. These Canadian oil sands will help keep American SUVs running in the years to come.

S. Korea Wants Wartime Command Back From United States - [Korea Times] South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun renewed his determination to make the nation’s military forces more self-reliant, saying they should get wartime military command back from its ally, the United States, sometime in the near future.

Massive Recovery Plan Likely to Deepen US Debt - [Seattle Times] The proposed record reconstruction spending in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, estimated as high as $200 billion, is all but certain to add to a mushrooming national debt that already has the country dependent on foreign investors.

US Tempers its View of Victory in Iraq - [Christian Science Monitor] From the earliest battle plans, which called for the quick return home of tens of thousands of troops, to the campaign in Fallujah and national elections that followed, the Pentagon had hoped it could largely eliminate lingering unrest before turning security over to Iraqis. The increasingly bracing tone from the White House and Pentagon, however, points to a new calculus.

India Likely to Overtake Japan Economy by 2030 - [Hindustan Times] Asia's economy will overtake that of the 15 pre-enlargement European Union members within 15 years and by 2025 will be larger than the combined economy of the United States, Canada and Mexico, South Korea's Central Bank said.

Two Towers of the New World Order - [Asia Media] An admittedly general but perhaps not insignificant consensus in America on the necessary future direction of US foreign policy appears finally to be emerging -- and not a moment too soon. The new foreign-policy consensus might be called "Global Getting-Along."


ENVIRONMENT

Changes to 'Roof of the World' Threaten Millions - [People and Planet] The mountains of Asia, including the mighty Himalayas, are facing accelerating threats from a rapid rise in roads,settlements, overgrazing and deforestation, experts warn in a new report. The 2050, they predict, most of China's glaciers will have disappeared.

Will Katrina Kill Sports Utility Vehicles? - [Sify News] Even before Hurricane Katrina tore through the southern United States, hampering a big chunk of the US oil industry, consumers were having second thoughts about gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles. Katrina could now hasten the demise of the SUV, at least in its current guise, after years in which it has ruled the roost over the world's biggest auto market, analysts believe.

India Faces Turbulent Water Future: World Bank - [Webindia123.com] The World Bank said it would step up funding for India's water projects to $900 million per annum from $200 million, saying the country faces a "turbulent" future without dramatic changes in water policy.

There's No Disguising It - Global Warming's No Put-On - [San Francisco Chronicle] Mounting evidence has forced an end to any serious scientific debate on whether humans are causing global warming. This is an event of historical significance, but one obscured from public view by the arcane technical literature and the noise generated by perpetual partisans.

The 'Energy Police' Are Coming! - [Green Building] 'Energy wardens' will police homes and offices to ensure that they do not waste gas and electricity under a radical plan being considered by John Prescott. An extraordinary blueprint being studied by the Deputy Prime Minister suggests conserving energy by monitoring the habits of home owners in the same way that air raid wardens made people turn off their lights during the Blitz.

Middle East and North Africa 'Ideal for Solar Power' - [Science and Development Network] The Middle East and North Africa are perfectly placed to play a leading role in the lucrative future solar power industry, says a report.

Solving Global Warming Architecturally - [Tufts Daily] The people who will design, plan and construct the future of Boston are brainstorming ideas that will eventually shape the look of the city.


THE FUTURE

The Future Needs Futurists - [Wired] As companies and government agencies grapple with the seemingly scorching rate of technological innovation and change, more are engaging the services of self-described futurists for advice on how to adapt.


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