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Innovation Watch Newsletter 4.19
September 17, 2005

ISSN: 1712-9834


In this issue...


This week, many questions. Is our brain still evolving? Can we measure machine intelligence? Is technology overcomplicating our lives? Will we ever reduce the disparities on this planet? Could we return to the age of sail? What are the perils and promises in a future where we enhance and re-engineer the human body?

The evolving brain...

Geneticist Bruce Lahn and colleagues at the University of Chicago, have estimated that changes in two genes regulating brain growth in humans -- the microcepahalin and ASPM genes -- occurred about 37,000 and 5,800 years ago, respectively. If these dates are correct, this roughly corresponds in the first instance to the emergence of art, music and tool-making; and in the second to the emergence of written language, agriculture, and urban settlement. While the connection between genetic and cultural evolution is highly speculative, it is clear that the human brain continues to evolve.

Machine intelligence...

Shane Legg and Marcus Hutter at the Swiss Institute for Artificial Intelligence in Manno-Lugano have proposed a standard IQ test to measure the intelligence of robots, learning systems, and software agents. There is still no consensus in the AI community on how such a test should be implemented, but Blay Whitby -- an expert in human and artificial intelligence at the University of Sussex in Brighton, England -- says it would mark a significant milestone. "This," he says, "is a very important -- perhaps the most important -- issue to be resolved for the future of AI."

Yet another software upgrade...

Business managers are more reluctant to pay for software upgrades, CIO Asia says. "Years of endless -- and regular -- software re-releases have soured many corporate executives on the virtues of upgrading. In some cases, corporate customers have found that much-ballyhooed releases are hardly upgrades at all -- merely tweaks and fiddles to perfectly good programs." Upgrades often come with unwanted features; they may make other systems and products inoperable; and they can trigger additional costs in computer equipment upgrades and employee retraining. In the end, customers may have little choice. Vendors stop supporting older software versions, and in the future more upgrades will be installed automatically over the Internet.

The new hacker...

Hackers are now competing for control of infected computers, The Christian Science Monitor reports. When the Zotob worm was released in August, seven variants appeared within a few days -- five of them designed to remove competing versions. It was a case, the paper says, of "dueling viruses." Hacking has become much more sophisticated. Networks of compromised computers are now being leased and sold as platforms to distribute spam and spread viruses.

Personal Tech Pipeline reports that admission systems at American universities and colleges are being hacked by prospective students. Their motive was to find out if they had been accepted by the school. Harvard Business School was hacked by 119 applicants, Stanford Graduate School of Business by 41, and MIT by 32. All of these applicants have been rejected.

An 80/20 rule?...

A UN report says 20 percent of the world's population controls 80 percent of its resources, and disparities are increasing. Young people account for almost half of the unemployed, and there are millions of working poor. Even in developed nations like Canada, Britain and the United States, there is a wide gap between rich and poor. Violence is commonly associated with this inequality, the report says. "The violence associated with national and international acts of terrorism should be viewed in the context of social inequality and disintegration."

Back to the future...

The World Business Council for Sustainable Development reports that the Swedish firm Wallenius Wilhelmsen has designed a massive 21st-century sailing ship that can carry cargo on the open ocean without using fossil fuel. Powered by large sails, and generating electricity from sunlight and wave action, the proposed vessel opens new options for international shipping. While it is only a concept today, the company says the ship could be built by 2025, using technologies that are currently in development.

Man or machine?...

In a collection of ten articles, Popular Science magazine examines a future where technology, pharmacology, genetic modification, and tissue engineering will be used to enhance and re-engineer the human body. The result? One of the articles predicts brain implants that communicate with machines; microchip implants that bypass damaged brain tissue; genetically enhanced vision that sees more than hues of red, green and blue; artificial implantable lungs and kidneys; drug delivery systems, implanted in the chest, that respond to changes in body chemistry or temperature; and cellphones implanted in teeth.

David Forrest


we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com


SCIENCE

Famine Increases the Risk of Schizophrenia - [New Scientist] Babies born during famine have more than double the risk of developing schizophrenia later in life, according to a study based on the 1959-1961 famine in China. The findings show that starvation experienced during the critical stages of early gestation alters brain development, producing mental health consequences years later in adulthood, the researchers say.

Nasal Spray Clears Alzheimer’s Brain Plaques - [New Scientist] A new nasal vaccine for Alzheimer’s disease has cleared plaques from the brains of affected mice and will be tested in humans in 2006.

NASA Scientist Finds World With Triple Sunsets - [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory] A NASA-funded astronomer has discovered a world where the sun sets over the horizon, followed by a second sun and then a third. The new planet, called HD 188753 Ab, is the first known to reside in a classic triple-star system.

Smart Bio-Nanotube - [Medical News Today] By combining one natural component of a cell with the synthetic analog of another component, researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara, have created a nanoscale hybrid they call the "smart bio-nanotube": a novel structure that could one day become a vehicle for ultra-precise drug or therapeutic gene delivery.

Genes Show Signs Brain Still Evolving - [ABC News] The human brain may still be evolving. So suggests new research that tracked changes in two genes thought to help regulate brain growth, changes that appeared well after the rise of modern humans 200,000 years ago.

What If…? Exploring Alternative Scientific Pasts - [New Scientist] There is no shortage of tantalising what-ifs: what if Newton had carried out his threat to quit science? What if Darwin hadn't sailed on the Beagle? What if Einstein hadn't found a job that allowed him so much time to daydream?

Scientists Make Nerve Stem Cells - [BBC] The world's first pure nerve stem cells made from human embryonic stem cells has been created by scientists at the Universities of Edinburgh and Milan. It is hoped the newly-created cells will eventually help scientists find new treatments for diseases such as Parkinson's and Alzheimer's.


TECHNOLOGY

Ear Biometrics May Beat Face Recognition - [New Scientist] A new type of ear-shape analysis could see ear biometrics surpass face recognition as a way of automatically identifying people, claim the UK researchers developing the system.

Energy-Beam Weapons Still Missing from Action - [MSNBC] For years, the U.S. military has explored a new kind of firepower that is instantaneous, precise and virtually inexhaustible: beams of electromagnetic energy. “Directed-energy” pulses can be throttled up or down depending on the situation, much like the phasers on “Star Trek” could be set to kill or merely stun.

'Robo-Doc' to Treat Seriously Ill - [BBC] An intelligent computer system which can imitate doctors' decisions about treatment for intensive care patients is being developed by scientists. It will monitor patients' vital signs and then evaluate and administer drugs - a job now done by specialist medics.

The Next Giant Leap in Space Exploration - [Red Nova] In laboratories around the country, NASA is supporting the burgeoning science of nanotechnology. The basic idea is to learn to deal with matter at the atomic scale -- to be able to control individual atoms and molecules well enough to design molecule-size machines, advanced electronics and "smart" materials.

Recipe for D-I-Y DNA Decoding Revealed - [Scientific American] A thousand dollars can buy a lot of things. Scientists hope to soon add an individual's genetic sequence to that list. Full-genome DNA decoding, estimated to now cost $20 million, could soon be done for about $2.2 million, experts say, and will continue to drop in price as researchers develop new ways to conquer the task.

IQ Test for AI Devices Gets Experts Thinking - [New Scientist] How do you tell just how smart your robot is? Give it a universal IQ test, researchers suggest. Traditional measures of human intelligence would often be inappropriate for systems that have senses, environments, and cognitive capacities very different from our own.

Intel Tries To Spur Wireless Cities Momentum - [Information Week] What if you could watch news on your cell phone while waiting for the subway in the morning? Or how about an emergency worker accessing and sending medical data in real-time using a handheld? It's mostly pie-in-the-wireless-sky at the moment, given the lack of wireless infrastructure in most cities. They're the kind of applications, though, that are drivers behind Intel's Digital Communities initiative.


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

Would You Stick to a Budget in a Virtual Life? - [Seattle Post-Intelligencer] For roughly a decade, people have used role-playing online games to conduct parallel lives. Raise another family. Start a new business. Build your own city. It's all possible in these virtual worlds. Now, some economists and social scientists say these Internet worlds could be a new type of laboratory to study economic behavior, such as how consumers respond to inflation.

China Hopes to Repeat India's Outsourcing Success - [CIOL] China's outsourcing companies are aiming to replicate the success of their Indian rivals to attract a larger share of US companies seeking to diversify business beyond India.

The Once & Future Consultant - [Fast Company] Dave Ulrich was one of the world's top management gurus until he gave it all up three years ago to run a Mormon mission in Quebec. Now he's heading back to business with a fresh eye -- and some fresh ideas.

Version Therapy - [CFO Asia] Why a growing number of business managers are just saying no to software upgrades.

The 21st-Century Organization - [cfo.com] Productive professionals make big enterprises competitive, yet these employees now increasingly find their work obstructed. Creating and exchanging knowledge and intangibles through interaction with their professional peers is the very heart of what they do. Yet most of them squander endless hours searching for the knowledge they need -- even if it resides in their own companies -- and coordinating their work with others.

India's Mini-Multinationals Make Waves in Western Markets - [International Herald Tribune] In the first eight months of this year, Indian companies paid $1.7 billion - more than quadruple the tally for all of 2001 - for 62 overseas companies, according to the accounting firm KPMG.

Why a Booming Economy Feels Flat - [Christian Science Monitor] A boom in corporate profits has not yet created a job market that makes workers feel secure, economists say. Hiring hasn't skyrocketed. Worse, wages are stagnant. This paycheck squeeze may prove more worrisome than soaring oil prices and concerns over a housing bubble. Some experts worry that wage stagnation may prove more permanent this time, because of an increasingly global market for labor.


SOCIETY

Mega-Trends: Convenience Food and Health to Double in Ten Years - [Food Navigator] Ten mega trends stretching from age to individualism will determine the success and shape of any new products to hit the market in the near future, claims market analysts Datamonitor.

College Admissions Routinely Hacked By Impatient Applicants - [Personal Tech Pipeline] A number of prestigious colleges and universities across the country have discovered they are being hacked at an alarming rate. But the reasons behind the security breaches at the likes of Harvard and Stanford aren't the usual kinds of motives we've seen by cybercriminals and identity thieves. In fact, the hackers in these cases could be described as overanxious and even enterprising students.

Psychologists Warn of Video-Game Violence - [ABC News] Shooting down the bad guys may no longer be such a good thing. According to a study done by the American Psychological Association, violence depicted in video games can cause children to behave in a way that is angry and aggressive.

Hacker Underground Erupts in Virtual Turf Wars - [Christian Science Monitor] Turf wars are emerging among hackers. Besides infiltrating computer systems, the viruses are now also designed to kill any other competing viruses in those systems.

Today’s “Mega-Cities” are Overcrowded and Environmentally Stressed - [Environmental Magazine] The world is rapidly urbanizing, and it’s not at all clear that our planet has the resources to cope with this relentless trend. And, unfortunately, most of the growth is occurring in urban centers ill-equipped for the pace of change.

It's About Body Piercings, Sex, Film and Popcorn - [Economic Times] There is nothing wrong with either BPOs or those who work there. Except that do we have to lose our Indianess to gell with the BPO culture? It’s not just Harsimran morphing into Harry or Samyukta becoming Sam. There is something more insidious. It is a willingness to dump one’s culture for some money. When was the last time that you heard a Yankee or a Brit or a French changing their names to suit a foreign culture.

Is Pop Culture Good for Your Brain? - [The Age] A new book says that everything we thought was making us stupid -- computer games, reality TV -- is actually making us smarter. But is electronic culture really brain food? Or do new technologies flatter us with the illusion of progress, and push us further away from real human interaction and meaning?


GLOBAL POLITICS

Will Urbanization in Developing Countries in 2030 Be Less Pronounced than Model Projections? - [Innovations Report] A new model indicates that, on the global scale, the proportion of individuals living in towns and cities will be 49.2% by 2030, compared with 60.8% estimated by a UN model. This means that the urban population could amount to one billion fewer people than predicted.

China, India Challenge US for Access to World's Oil - [STLToday] Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, Syria - nations shunned by the United States as nuclear threats, insurgent havens or human rights violators - are increasingly being wooed by China and India in a race for oil and influence that is challenging Washington on the energy and security fronts.

Supporting Social Entrepreneurs - [South Africa Info] Ashoka - Sanskrit for "the active absence of sorrow" - is a global organisation working to support and provide a network for social entrepreneurs in their quest to cure social ills. It's been hard at work in South Africa since 1990.

Nepal and the Asian Transformation - [Kantipur Online] Asia’s share in the global economy is expected to rise from about 24 per cent in 2002 to about 50 per cent in 2050 – the same as that in 1820 before Asia succumbed to economic stagnation, foreign intervention and outright conquest. A continent, for long subdued, is free and ready to reclaim its rightful place in the world.

Mexicans Take Over Drug Trade to US - [ABC News] In the largest reorganization since the 1980s, senior US officials say, Mexican cartels have leveraged the profits from their delivery routes to wrest control from the Colombian producers. The shift is also because of the success authorities have had in cracking down on Colombia's kingpins.

'Half Asian Children' in Poverty - [BBC] Nearly half of Asia's 1.3bn children live in poverty, denied basic needs, says a new report.
India has the largest number of poor children in Asia, with 80% of its 400m young severely deprived, it says.

So Few Rule over 80 Percent of Global GDP - [Manila Times] Despite unprecedented economic growth especially in Asia, 20 percent of the world’s population controls 80 percent of global wealth, and inequalities in income and opportunity persist and in many cases are getting worse, a UN report said.


ENVIRONMENT

Green Power the Wave of the Future on High Seas - [World Business Council for Sustainable Development] Roughly 14,000 years after the ancient Egyptians began using sails to navigate reed boats along the Nile, an Oceanic transport giant from Sweden is betting that the future of modern-day shipping rests on a return to good old-fashioned wind power.

A Fresh Threat to Coral Reefs Surfaces - [Royal Gazette] A report from Britain's Royal Society, timed to influence this week's G8 summit in Scotland, has pointed up a new danger to coral reefs worldwide, and a local scientist confirms that increased levels of acidification have also been found in Bermuda's waters.

'Ecosystem Services': A Vital Term in Policy Debates - [World Business Council for Sustainable Development] Walter Reid, Robert Watson and Harold Mooney defend the use of the term 'ecosystem services' as an essential way of communicating to policymakers the importance of the benefits that people receive from ecosystems.

We're All Global Warmers Now - [Reason] Anyone still holding onto the idea that there is no global warming ought to hang it up. All data sets -- satellite, surface, and balloon -- have been pointing to rising global temperatures. In fact, they all have had upward pointing arrows for nearly a decade, but now all of the data sets are in closer agreement due to adjustments published in three new articles in Science.

Nuclear Waste in Space? - [Space Review] There are three good reasons to send nuclear waste into space. First, it is safe. Second, space disposal is better than the alternative, underground burial. Third, it may finally open the door to widespread utilization of space.

Back to the Future - [Economist] What could be more logical, Josh Donlan of Cornell University suggests, than introducing endangered Old World mammals into the New World, thus saving them from extinction while returning wild America to something like the state it was in before Homo sapiens took up residence?

Arctic Summer Could be Ice-Free by 2105 - [Live Science] If the current warming trends continue in the Arctic, the region may have ice-free summers within 100 years, a new report concludes. The Arctic hasn't been without ice for a million years. But documented melting is accelerating and scientists don't know of any natural way to slow it. Scientists expect 2005 to be the warmest year on record, globally.


THE FUTURE

The Future of the Body - [Popular Science] In this special issue, PopSci explores the breakthroughs that will make it possible to manipulate the body in novel (and sometimes disturbing) ways.


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