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Innovation Watch Newsletter 4.12
June 11, 2005

ISSN: 1712-9834


In this issue...


"Life," wrote John Lennon, "is what happens while you're busy making other plans." The 'future' works the same way. Preoccupied with making progress, we're blindsided by the unexpected. So a bit of both this week.

The barcode of life...

The Consortium for the Barcode of Life plans to 'barcode' all birds and fish in the next five years, using a segment of a mitochondrial gene that appears to distinguish between species. The test can be run quickly in the field, speeding up the identification of new species. If this can be done reliably, the benefits would be significant. Only ten percent of the world's species have now been formally identified. The initiative is controversial, however. Taxonomists say it will create confusion, and that it is less reliable than traditional techniques, which differentiate between species based on a wide range of characteristics.

Life support on Mars...

Space.com reports that scientists are developing microsystems that could produce oxygen or rocket fuel from carbon dioxide in the Martian atmosphere. NASA intends to use the technology in a manned mission to the Red Planet by 2030. Studies have shown that relying on local resources could reduce the cost of the mission by 40 percent. The technology may also be used on the space station, and in lunar missions.

The end of insanely great...

Howard Anderson -- distinguished lecturer at MIT's Sloan School of Management and a successful venture capitalist -- says has given up raising money for venture funds. Demand for new technologies is moribund, he says. "The hype machine is broken," and markets have now become more rational. Venture capitalists earn their living in irrational markets. Anderson says these changes are structural, and there's just no place today to spend all of the money that has been raised.

Do-it-yourself genes...

Everything one needs for 'garage biology' is available on the web, Rob Carlson writes in a recent Wired article. While extensive skills and knowledge are required to put it all together -- and it's still out of reach of the home hobbyist -- that may eventually change. "The Discovery DNA Explorer kit for kids 10 and older... is surprisingly functional at $80," Carlson says. Can made-at-home genomes be far away?

Competing for energy...

Michael T. Klare, author of Blood and Oil: The Dangers and Consequences of America's Growing Dependency on Imported Oil, writes on the growing global competition for energy resources in an article for Mother Jones. The US Department of Energy expects that global energy consumption will increase by more than 50% in the first quarter of this century. China's oil consumption is forecast to increase by 156% and India's by 152% in that period. Klare says it is unlikely that supply will be sufficient to meet this growth in demand, and describes recent foreign policy decisions and mounting tensions as countries scramble to secure energy reserves. He says energy security "has been elevated into the realm of national security, on an equal plane with efforts to combat nuclear proliferation and international terrorism."

Global brightening...

The Christian Science Monitor says that while researchers had previously reported a drop in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, that has changed significantly since 1990. Global brightening -- an increase in incoming radiation since that time -- has been confirmed by a number of scientists. The cause and consequences are still unknown.

The world ten years from now...

In an excerpt from his book World Out of Balance, published in The Globalist, Paul Laudicina describes three scenarios for the world in 2015. "Castles and Moats" describes a world of conflict, terrorism, and erosion of global confidence in the United States -- a future of suspicion, xenophobia, protectionism and citizen surveillance. "Patchwork World" envisages a time of muddling through, where countries and companies lack leadership and vision. Poverty and violence are localized, as the developing world is left to fend for itself. "Open Borders, Lingering Fears" describes a future where the United States and China dominate, with highly integrated markets. Business activity and technological innovation are intense, and standards of living increase in countries that are engaged in the global economy.

David Forrest


we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com


SCIENCE

CT Scans Show What King Tut Looked Like - [Live Science] The first ever facial reconstructions based on CT scans of King Tutankhamun's mummy have produced images strikingly similar to the boy pharaoh's ancient portraits, Egypt's top archaeologist said. Three teams of forensic artists and scientists -- from France, the United States and Egypt -- built models of the boy pharaoh's face based on some 1,700 high-resolution photos from CT scans of his mummy to reveal what he looked like the day he died nearly 3,300 years ago.

10 Years of Planet Hunting: Amazing Variety Out There - [Space.com] Astronomers met last week to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the first planet discovered around a normal star other than the Sun. Although more than 130 other such planets have been found since then, the field still feels like it is just getting started. And the places they see are getting stranger every year.

Bending to Bar Codes - [Scientific American] In a February meeting in London, the Consortium for the Barcode of Life announced plans to bar-code all birds and fish within the next five years, as well as identify all flowering plants in Costa Rica. The initiatives are stepping-stones on the way to their much grander goal: a gene tag for every living thing and a catalogue of the earth's biodiversity (only about one tenth of the world's species are formally known).

Lost Limb? Worm May Hold Answers - [Wired] Scientists have for the first time completed a survey of gene function in a highly regenerative species of worm that could offer important insights into cell regrowth in humans. Putting the abilities of Wolverine in the movie X-Men to shame, a small piece of a planarian worm can regenerate an entire new body. The worm's ability to regenerate is so powerful that a tissue fragment only 1/279 of the worm's length can grow into a new animal.

Vitamin A's Paradoxical Role in Influencing Symmetry During Embryonic Development Revealed - [EurekAlert] Scientists at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies report that they have solved one of the "holy grail" puzzles of developmental biology: the existence of a mechanism that insures that the exterior of our bodies is symmetrical while inner organs are arranged asymmetrically.

Is Basic Law of Physics Changing? - [Red Nova] scientists are debating clues that suggest the laws of physics change over time, threatening to shake up our basic notions of reality. At stake is one of the fundamental values in physics: the arcane- sounding "fine structure constant," which measures how subatomic particles interact with light and with each other.

Indonesia Finds Bird Flu in Pigs - [ABC News] Indonesian researchers have found a strain of bird flu in pigs on the densely populated island of Java, raising fears the virus could more easily spread to humans, the government and scientists said. The scientist who made the discovery identified the strain found in the pigs as H5N1, the same version of the virus that has jumped from chickens to humans elsewhere in Southeast Asia.


TECHNOLOGY

New Robots Clone Themselves - [Live Science] Mimicking reproduction in living organisms, researchers have built a simple self-replicating robot out of automated blocks. Machines that can copy themselves have been built before, but the earlier experiments were limited to two dimensions or confined to a track. Hod Lipson and his collaborators at Cornell University have designed modular cubes, called molecubes, that can assume a range of three-dimensional shapes.

Micromachines to Produce Propellant and Air on Mars - [Space.com] Two teams of researchers are hoping their tiny devices will mean big leaps for future Mars-bound humans, allowing them to carry powerful computers and generate life support materials from the planet’s atmosphere.

Motorola Debuts First Ever Nano Emissive Flat Screen Display Prototype - [PhysOrg] Motorola Labs unveiled a working 5-inch color video display prototype based on proprietary Carbon Nanotube (CNT) technology -- a breakthrough technique that could create large, flat panel displays with superior quality, longer lifetimes and lower costs than current offerings.

Students Use Clickers to Help Guide College Lectures - [ABC News] Educators across the country are buying into a new technology that finally allows professors to answer questions that sometimes drive them up the wall. With class sizes getting ever bigger, sometimes numbering in the hundreds, it's hard to keep in touch with the students. Thus the old haunting questions: Is anybody out there listening? Is any of this sinking in? Is anybody awake?

Vaults: From Biological Mystery to Nanotech Workhorse? - [National Science Foundation] Naturally occurring nano-capsules, known as "vaults," could provide a whole new class of delivery vehicles for therapeutic drugs and DNA, according to recent research. Indeed, vaults could be used for a wide range of applications in nanotechnology -- even though no one can figure out how nature itself uses them.

Devices Detect Caches of Cash - [CNN] Drug traffickers who ship profits abroad in suitcases are not apt to be thrilled with some inventions developed by federal scientists at the Idaho National Laboratory.

Group Studies RFID to Stop Digital Piracy - [RFID Journal] A group of researchers at UCLA is working on a new RFID application that would provide consumers a means of watching DVDs of movies as soon as they hit the theaters. It could also be used to address one of Hollywood's biggest concerns: piracy of digital content.


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

EU Parliament OKs 48-Hour Maximum Workweek - [ABC News] Amid concern that worker fatigue leads to accidents on the job, the European Union parliament voted Wednesday to abolish loopholes that give member states especially Britain a way around the bloc's 48-hour maximum workweek.

Rising Fuel Prices Hit Farmers With a 'Three-Way Whammy' - [Boston Globe] The farmers who grow many of the fresh fruit and vegetables for the nation's dinner tables say the rising cost of oil is making this one of their toughest planting seasons yet -- and might shove some of them out of business.

Good-Bye to Venture Capital - [Technology Review] Good-bye! We venture capitalists like to think of ourselves as giants striding across the technology landscape, showering money on terrific young entrepreneurs, adding value, creating jobs, nurturing real companies. We are financial samurai. But I am giving it up. Why?

Game Skills Pay Off in Real Life - [SiliconValley.com] At the Charles Schwab company's call-center headquarters in Phoenix, human resources vice president Chip Luman has learned a secret about financial services technology and the employees who operate it: Video-game players often display exceptional business skills.

White House Re-Imposes Quotas on China - [ABC News] The Bush administration announced that it has decided to re-impose quotas on three categories of clothing imports from China, responding to pleas from domestic producers that a surge of Chinese imports was threatening thousands of U.S. jobs.

Culture Wars Hit Corporate America - [Business Week] Increasingly, business must weigh in on hot social issues -- and suffer interest groups' slings and arrows.

Google Snaps Up Mobile Social-Networking Startup - [eWeek] Building onto its mobile and social-networking technologies, Google has bought the two-person startup company Dodgeball.com.


SOCIETY

Ottawa Warned Over US Plans to Import Drugs - [Globe and Mail] Pharmacists and doctors warn that a US plan to legalize the bulk importation of pharmaceuticals from Canada will cause drug shortages, increase the cost of medicine and reduce the number of professionals available to fill prescriptions.

America's Eroding Knowledge Edge - [Business Week] The US is engaged in a fierce contest with other large countries to secure the lion's share of the world's knowledge work. Will America come out on top? The answer is no longer an automatic yes.

Type 2 Diabetes Increasing Dramatically Among Kids - [CBC] The number of children getting Type 2 diabetes has jumped 15-fold since 1990 due to obesity, poor nutrition and lack of exercise.

Earthly Empires - [Business Week] Pastor Joel is one of a new generation of evangelical entrepreneurs transforming their branch of Protestantism into one of the fastest-growing and most influential religious groups in America. Their runaway success is modeled unabashedly on business. They borrow tools ranging from niche marketing to MBA hiring to lift their share of US churchgoers. Like Osteen, many evangelical pastors focus intently on a huge potential market -- the millions of Americans who have drifted away from mainline Protestant denominations or simply never joined a church in the first place.

Stations of the Cross - [Columbia Journalism Review] Blogging, CBN, or Christian Broadcasting Network, is just one star in a vast and growing Christian media universe, which has sprung up largely under the mainstream’s radar. Conservative evangelicals control at least six national television networks, each reaching tens of millions of homes, and virtually all of the nation’s more than 2,000 religious radio stations. Thanks to Christian radio’s rapid growth, religious stations now outnumber every other format except country music and news-talk.

Splice It Yourself - [Wired] The era of garage biology is upon us. Want to participate? Take a moment to buy yourself a molecular biology lab on eBay. A mere $1,000 will get you a set of precision pipettors for handling liquids and an electrophoresis rig for analyzing DNA.

The Face of Human Rights - [The Globalist] Ignorance is blinding and the discrimination that results from it reflects how far we have come as a civilization. And yet, despite grand achievements like building skyscrapers and mapping the genetic code, we still have very far to go.


GLOBAL POLITICS

The Global Struggle for Energy - [Mother Jones] From Washington to New Delhi, Caracas to Moscow and Beijing, national leaders and corporate executives are stepping up their efforts to gain control over major sources of oil and natural gas as the global struggle for energy intensifies. Never has the competitive pursuit of untapped oil and gas reserves been so acute, and never has so much money as well as diplomatic and military muscle been deployed in the contest to win control over major foreign stockpiles of energy.

The Ethics of Exit - [Foreign Policy] Iraq’s first democratic elections in decades have passed, and a new Iraqi government is getting on its feet. Is it time for the United States and its allies to leave? What is the US obligation and when is it discharged? In this FP Roundtable, five leading experts argue over what it will take for the United States to bid Iraq a proper farewell.

Death by a Thousand Cuts - [Yale Global] The United States has long been the major power influencing Latin American politics and business, encouraging currency ties, controlling natural resources, and at times even helping to depose governments it no longer supports. But recently several small "cuts," as Imanuel Wallerstein writes, have undermined US control in the region.

Is Democracy in the Middle East a Pipedream? - [Yale Global] The winds of democratic change are sweeping the Middle East, but there is still much mistrust to overcome. According to Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges, the current stirrings against autocratic rulers, from Beirut to Cairo to Jerusalem, herald a more assertive civil society and a true longing for political emancipation among Arabs. Still, history has left deep scars for Muslims in the region, many of whom equate liberal democracy with Western political hegemony and domination.

Return of the Axis of Evil - [The Economist] In the coming days or weeks, the world may face a double nuclear challenge from the axis of evil's surviving members. From North Korea, which quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003, have come reports that the regime is preparing its first nuclear test. And Iran has just informed Britain, France and Germany that after six months during which it had suspended these activities, it will shortly resume converting yellowcake into the uranium-hexafluoride gas that can be enriched for a nuclear bomb.

Worldwide Implications of the Orange Revolution - [Harvard International Review] successful imitation of peaceful regime change strategies already tested in Georgia and the former Yugoslavia while others maintain that the massive manifestations of Ukrainian people were true democracy in action. In any case, Ukraine was transformed into a true battlefield of power where Russia, the European Union and the United States struggled to exert influence in this strategically-located Eastern European country.

Europe Threatens US on Kyoto - [World Peace Herald] The European Parliament has called for trade sanctions against the United States and other countries emitting high levels of carbon dioxide. The Parliament voted in a non-binding resolution to try to stop the United States from "profiting from its license to pollute." They seek to compensate for any competitive advantage enjoyed by countries that do not control carbon emissions.


ENVIRONMENT

Swiss Wrap Glacier to Slow Ice Melt - [CNN] Alarmed by the retreat of its Alpine glacier, a Swiss ski resort on Tuesday wrapped part of the shrinking ice-cap in a giant blanket in a bid to reduce the summer melt.

Changes in Gulf Stream Could Chill Europe - [CNN] Scientists now have evidence that changes are occurring in the Gulf Stream, the warm and powerful ocean current that tempers the western European climate.

Nuclear Power May Be the Only Way, Says Chief Scientist - [Independent] Britain may need one more generation of nuclear power stations in the fight against climate change, Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser, says.

America's Unheralded Water Cleanup - [Christian Science Monitor] With little fanfare, counties, states, and the federal government have collectively spent an estimated $14 billion or more -- at least $1 billion a year since 1990 -- to restore rivers and streams to their natural condition, not including dollars spent on Goliath restoration projects like the Everglades. Ironically, the move to clean up America's unheralded rivers comes at a time when the condition of the nation's waterways overall is starting to deteriorate.

Global Warming Drives Fish Species Out of North Sea - [Yorkshire Post] Large numbers of fish are being driven out of the North Sea by global warming, scientists warned. The British researchers think that some species may be lost to the region completely by 2050. Among the fish on the move are commercially important varieties such as Atlantic cod, sole and whiting.

Can Earth Take the Heat of 'Global Brightening'? - [Christian Science Monitor] The amount of sunlight reaching Earth's surface appears to be growing. The phenomenon, which some dub "global brightening," presents scientists with a puzzle. If the trend is real and global, how long will it last and what are the consequences for climate change, the planet's water cycle, and other processes that draw energy from sunlight?

Gigawatts from Gusts - [IEEE Spectrum] In a 514-page study released this February, the Berlin-based German Energy Agency concludes that by 2015 -- when Germany hopes to have shut down 7300 megawatts' worth of nuclear power -- the country can more than double its wind capacity to 36 000 MW, from 16 600 MW in 2004.


THE FUTURE

World Out of Balance - Three Scenarios for 2015 - [The Globalist] What is the world going to look like in ten years? In today's volatile global environment, nobody knows for sure which way the global economy and security structure will turn. Will this period bring relative harmony or usher in an era of deeper isolation? A.T. Kearney's Paul Laudicina offers three scenarios to depict possible visions of the future.


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