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Innovation Watch Newsletter 4.05
March 5, 2005

ISSN: 1712-9834


In this issue...


What if we found life on another planet? What if machines really understood how we felt? What if we lost the skills required to sustain the economy? Is there a breaking point, in a society where we spend more and more time commuting? What will the world look like when the knowledge economy is truly global?

Recent news items raise these and many other questions.

Life, hidden and revealed...

Is there life on Mars? Italian scientist Vittorio Formisano says it's a possibility. The Mars Express probe has detected trace gases on the red planet that could be created by biological activity. Formisano says the only way to know for sure is to analyze samples of the soil.

Life has proven that it can survive for millennia in extreme conditions... here on Earth. NASA scientists have thawed Alaskan ice and revived bacteria dormant for 32,000 years. They have named the previously unknown species Carnobacterium pleistocenium, for the Pleistocene epoch when the bacteria coexisted with woolly mammoths.

Emotional intelligence...

Will machines someday empathize with humans? Media Lab researchers at MIT have designed a voicemail system that labels incoming messages as urgent, happy, excited or formal. The system compares each message with stored "acoustical fingerprints" based on volume, pitch and speech rate. Experts say that in the future machines will be able to sense our emotions and respond appropriately.

Hitting the wall...

Lack of skills may soon hobble the global economy, a new study by Deloitte Research concludes. Declining educational standards, Baby Boomer retirement, and problems retaining skilled staff are now seen as a threat by more than 70 percent of executives surveyed. According to the study, this is a global phenomenon. The U.S. Department of Education says only 20 percent of the workforce will be equipped with the skills required for 60 percent of new jobs in the 21st century.

Running flat out...

A four, five or six-hour commute? Not unusual, Business Week says, in an article on "extreme commuting." Some commuters now leave home as early as 3 a.m. to get to work. "Most people travel long distances with the idea that they'll accept the burden for something better, be it a house, salary, or school," the magazine says. But in the end it doesn't pay off. "People usually overestimate the value of the things they'll obtain by commuting -- more money, more material goods, more prestige -- and underestimate the benefit of what they are losing: social connections, hobbies, and health."

National Geographic reports that, on average, Americans get an hour less sleep each night than they did 20 or 30 years ago. Half of adults between 18 to 34 say sleepiness interferes with their work. New York University's Sleep Disorders Center estimates that 90 percent of college students suffer from lack of sleep.

The global knowledge revolution...

New Scientist says high-tech companies are moving to India "to find innovators whose ideas will take the world by storm." The country's IT industry is by now a familiar success story, more than doubling its contribution to India's GDP in the last five years from 1.3 percent in 1999 to 3 percent in 2004. The magazine says the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries will be next. Goldman Sachs predicts that India will have the third largest economy in the world by 2050, after China and the United States.

David Forrest


we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com


SCIENCE

Mitochondrial DNA Mutations Play Significant Role In Prostate Cancer - [Science Daily] Mutations in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) play an important role in the development of prostate cancer, according to research by scientists at Emory University School of Medicine and the University of California, Irvine.

DNA Map to Help Target New Drugs - [BBC] Scientists have published data on over one million crucial DNA variations in three racial groups, paving the way for "individualised" medicines.

Seafloor Still About 90 Percent Unknown, Experts Say - [National Geographic] The US nuclear submarine San Francisco crashed into an uncharted underwater mountain in the South Pacific last month, killing one submariner and injuring dozens of others. The incident remains under investigation, but it spotlights a troubling nautical reality -- we may know more about the geography of the moon than that of the ocean floor.

Catch a Gravity Wave - [Astronomy.com] Armchair astrophysicists rejoice: Now, you can help scientists find gravity waves -- ripples in the fabric of space-time caused by spinning neutron stars. All you need is a computer, a fast connection to the Internet, and the Einstein@Home screensaver.

Pig Stem Cells to Be Used to Grow Human Organs? - [National Geographic] It might be possible to transplant embryonic stem cells from pigs into humans to grow new organs, a new study shows.

Martian Gases Pose Life Question - [BBC] An Italian scientist working on the Mars Express probe says gases detected in the planet's atmosphere may indicate life exists on the Red Planet today. Vittorio Formisano told a Dutch space conference methane and formaldehyde could signify biological activity.

Ice Age Bacteria Brought Back to Life - [New Scientist] A bacterium that sat dormant in a frozen pond in Alaska for 32,000 years has been revived by NASA scientists. Once scientists thawed the ice, the previously undiscovered bacteria started swimming around on the microscope slide.


TECHNOLOGY

New Tools Ease Online Collaboration and Publishing - [Boston Globe] A new crop of tools aims to help turn the Web -- be it on the public Internet or a company network -- into much more than a collection of documents one visits like a museum: Look, but don't touch. The idea is to make it easy to quickly post and remove stuff from digital bulletin boards where the online communities of the future will gather to catch up and trade ideas, images, and work.

Closer to the Remote-Controlled Home - [Business Week] iControl, a young California company, is launching a Web-based service that lets people monitor their house, business, or even the kids.

Chips that Thrive on Uncertainty - [Business Week] Transistors are like snowflakes: No two are exactly the same. This variation hasn't mattered much so far, but that will soon change.

Voicemail Software Recognises Callers' Emotions - [New Scientist] A voicemail system that labels messages according to the caller's tone of voice could soon be helping people identify which messages are the most urgent. The software, called Emotive Alert, is designed by Zeynep Inanoglu and Ron Caneel of the Media Lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Devastating Attack in the Net's Near Future, Experts Say - [Internet Week] Count on at least one devastating attack on the Internet in the next 10 years, an overwhelming majority of technology experts polled by a major research group says.

Novel 'Canary on a Chip' Sensor Measures Tiny Changes in Cell Volume; Provides Assay Results in Minutes - [Science Daily] A novel technology that can test cells in minutes for responses to any stimulus, including antibiotics, pathogens, toxins, radiation or chemotherapy, has been developed by scientists at the University at Buffalo.

Ambitious Solar Sail Could Launch this Spring - [Spaceflight Now] The Planetary Society's oft-delayed Cosmos 1 solar sail is finally on the verge of launching on its test mission to validate the practicality of a revolutionary propulsion method that relies on sunlight instead of chemical rocket fuels.


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

On Leadership: Executives need to be Alert for Major Shifts in Business - [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette] Scientists are constantly working to develop early detection systems to warn the world of impending events with dramatic consequences like the recent tsunami. Chief executive officers and senior managers need to develop early warning systems as well.

Retiring Workforce, Widening Skills Gap - [Supply & Demand Chain Executive] Impending Baby Boomer retirements, a widening skills gap driven by declining educational standards, and outdated and ineffective approaches to talent management are combining forces to produce a "perfect storm" that threatens the global business economy, according to new research conducted by the Human Capital practice of Deloitte Consulting and Deloitte Research, a part of Deloitte Services.

The Endangered Department Store - [Boston Globe] The potential merger of department store parents of Macy's and Filene's makes some wonder if the mass-market department store as we know it is dead. Squeezed at the high end by luxury retailers like Neiman Marcus and boutiques, and at the low end by Wal-Mart and Target, the Macy's and Filene's of the world need to reinvent themselves in order to survive.

With Dollar Falling, Foreign Buyers Pursue US Firms - [Boston Globe] Foreign buyers are capitalizing on the weak dollar to snap up US companies at bargain-basement prices, boosting investment in high-tech regions like New England but also fueling concerns about jobs and technology flowing out of the country.

How China Will Change Your Business - [Inc.] Fourteen things every entrepreneur should know about the capitalist explosion heading our way. But don't assume that conceding China's rise means conceding to China.

The Silicon Subcontinent - [New Scientist] Some of the biggest names in IT are heading towards Bangalore once more, and this time round it's not cheap labour they are looking for. They are hunting down the brightest, most inventive minds in India to populate a swathe of cutting-edge research facilities.

Radio Changes Its Tune - [Christian Science Monitor] The radio business may be undergoing its biggest shakeup ever. So many new digital technologies are beckoning to its traditional listeners that it's hard to know what radio is anymore.


SOCIETY

An Incubator for Social Innovation - [Financial Times] What India needs today, says Vivek Bharati, "is an institution that can 'incubate' new ideas that stimulate social innovation for transforming the lives of the poor in our country, just like there are incubators for nurturing scientists and technologists with ideas for new products and services and turn them into entrepreneurs."

Extreme Commuting - [Business Week] For the last leg of their five- and sometimes six-hour, door-to-door commutes, the working moms who call themselves the "Bus Buddies" of the Adirondack Trailways' Red Line run usually talk about one thing: How can I get off this thing? How to end the exhausting odyssey from New York state towns such as New Paltz and Woodstock, waking up at 5, 4, and even 3 a.m. to board a smelly long-hauler to Manhattan, where the salaries are 70% more?

US Denies Patent for Part-Human Hybrid - [Boston Globe] A New York scientist's seven-year effort to win a patent on a laboratory-conceived creature that is part human and part animal ended in failure Friday, closing a historic and somewhat ghoulish chapter in US intellectual property law.

Generations are Split over Social Security's Future - [Houston Chronicle] Republicans find young people open to reforms and older workers skeptical of plans.

Robotics in War: Technology v. Morality - [Seattle Post-Intelligencer] As in medicine, our skill at creating technology is outpacing our ability to grasp its ethical application. This time, the gap between ingenuity and morality is on the battlefield. We are all but ready to build robots to fight our wars but far from prepared to resolve the cadre of attendant ethical questions.

U.S. Racking Up Huge "Sleep Debt" - [National Geographic] Sleep is a biological need, much like food and water. If totally deprived of shut-eye, humans ultimately perish. Yet millions of Americans are increasingly skimping on their sleep.

A Job or a Cigarette? - [MSNBC] Most companies already ban tobacco use in the workplace and more than a half dozen states and hundreds of cities have enacted laws to the same effect. Now, citing rising health-insurance costs and concerns about employees’ well-being, a growing number of companies are refusing to hire people who smoke, even if they do so on their own time and nowhere near their jobs.


GLOBAL POLITICS

Most Indians Say 'Thumbs Up' to Second Bush Term - [Christian Science Monitor] Based on a combination of business links, immigration trends, shared views on terrorism, and national self-interest, India's increasingly warm approach toward Washington is one of the reasons the US now regards India as a rising global and regional power, and a partner above most other nations in Asia.

U.S. Rebuffs Germany on Plan for NATO - [International Herald Tribune] A German proposal to reform the North Atlantic Treaty Organization by establishing a trans-Atlantic forum to develop strategies was brushed aside by U.S. officials and rejected by the organization at a major security conference in Munich over the weekend.

India’s Population ‘to Outstrip China by 2030’ - [Financial Times] According to the UN's latest World Population Prospects, released on Thursday in New York, there will be 1,395m people in India in 2025 and 1,593m in 2050. In China the population will grow to 1,441m by 2025, before dropping to 1,392m in 2050.

The Next Knowledge Superpower - [New Scientist] Over the past five years alone, more than 100 IT and science-based firms have located R&D labs in India. These are not drudge jobs: high-tech companies are coming to India to find innovators whose ideas will take the world by storm. Their recruits are young graduates, straight from India's universities and elite technology institutes, or expats who are streaming back because they see India as the place to be -- better than Europe and the US. The knowledge revolution has begun.

With 20 Official Languages, Is EU Lost in Translation? - [National Geographic] The European Union has been operating in 20 official languages since ten new member states joined the legislative body last year. With annual translation costs set to rise to 1.3 billion dollars (U.S.), some people question whether EU institutions are becoming overburdened by multilingualism.

Candid Words on Russia's Drift from Democracy - [Economist] Vladimir Putin and George Bush have had a “candid” discussion about American fears that the Russian leader is sliding back into his country's old, authoritarian ways. Despite differences on this, the two leaders agreed on other important issues—and emerged from the summit still apparently friends.

Worries About Weapons, cont'd - [Economist] America is angry that the European Union plans to lift an embargo on sales of weaponry to China, which in turn is angry that Japan and America have identified Taiwan as a joint security concern.


ENVIRONMENT

India May Be Under Pressure to Cut Emissions Post-Kyoto - [Planet Ark] As fuel imports grow and demand for cars surges, analysts say India is likely to face pressure to join rich nations in their efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Kyoto climate change protocol.

Sweden for Talks to Replace Kyoto Treaty - [NDTV] Sweden's Prime Minister today called for new talks on countering global warming once the Kyoto treaty expires in 2012 and predicted that the United States, Australia and other countries now outside the pact would join the next agreement.

How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate? - [Scientific American] A bold new hypothesis suggests that our ancestors' farming practices kicked off global warming thousands of years before we started burning coal and driving cars.

Hydroelectric Power's Dirty Secret Revealed - [New Scientist] Contrary to popular belief, hydroelectric power can seriously damage the climate. Proposed changes to the way countries' climate budgets are calculated aim to take greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs into account, but some experts worry that they will not go far enough.

A Race to Fix a 30-Year-Old 'Solution' - [Christian Science Monitor] In a scene repeated in more than a dozen countries from Hungary to Chile to the United States, tens of millions of people are drinking from arsenic-tainted wells. Ironically, these wells were dug from the 1970s to the present to provide clean water. Some have called it the largest mass poisoning in history.

Tsunami Threat to Water Supplies - [BBC] Fresh water supplies in countries hit by the Asian tsunami are under serious threat, according to a UN report. Drinking water sources have been contaminated by salt water and sewage, and every well in Sri Lanka may have been affected, the study says.

How Many Earths? - [Our Planet] Jacqueline McGlade describes how Europe’s standard of living is rooted in the overuse of resources from other parts of the world, and calls for an eco-efficiency revolution.


THE FUTURE

SWR TV Documentary on Dr. Patrick Dixon, Futurist - What does a Futurist actually do? Patrick Dixon is contacted by TV, radio and press journalists around 200 times a year (up to 70 times in a single day) for comment on major issues and trends.


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