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While we have become adept at anticipating
"progress" and making projections of well-defined
trends, we're often blindsided by new developments. For
example, how can we fully understand the implications of
quantum computers, that could soon perform calculations
billions of times faster than today's machines? And technology
futures may well be the easiest conundrum to decipher. How
can we comprehend the far-reaching consequences of global
climate change?
The uncertainty of prediction notwithstanding,
a number of the items covered in this issue of the newsletter
appear likely to change the world.
The BBC reports that American scientists
have created a rudimentary artificial cell that can manufacture
proteins. By adding a gene, they induced the "cell"
to develop small pores, through which it was able to obtain
nutrients from its environment. Lead researcher Albert Libchaber
hopes to create a "minimal synthetic organism,"
that can sustain itself like a living cell.
Wired reports that a group of engineers
at MIT is creating an expanded version of the genetic code,
that can be used like software to program lifeforms that
have never existed before. Scientists have already been
successful in altering the way DNA instructions are interpreted.
According to National Geographic, researchers
are beginning to create chimeras by combining genetic material
from animals and humans. Scientists in the United States
have already created pigs with human blood. The magazine
also reports that scientists at Stanford University may
create mice with human brains sometime later this year.
The ethical questions raised by these experiments are unprecedented.
CogVis -- a computer created at the University
of Leeds, in the United Kingdom -- is learning how to play
'scissors, paper, stone' by watching and mimicking humans.
Using this approach, scientists say, computers will be able
to interpret many situations for themselves. The system
recently won a British Computing Society prize for Progress
Towards Machine Intelligence.
New Scientist reports Intel is releasing
new software libraries, optimized for its microprocessors,
that will allow developers to build advanced machine learning
capabilities into their programs.
Business Week says global positioning
will come to the grocery aisle next year when Albertson's
equips shoppers with handheld scanners. The new devices
will keep a running total of purchases and provide in-store
navigation to the merchandise. Checkout will be automatic,
as the scanner charges the shopper's credit card.
The Washington Post reports that
information industry companies are amassing immense storehouses
of personal information, and are providing it to government
and corporate clients. The companies are able to compile
information in ways that are prohibited to government by
privacy and information laws.
Editor-in-Chief of United Press International,
Martin Walker, writes in the Globalist about the
fragile balance of power in the Middle East. "Make
a move in Jerusalem," he says, "and the effects
are felt in Tehran. Make a move in Tehran and the impact
is felt in Baghdad." The Americans in Baghdad, the
Israelis in Jerusalem and the Iranians in Tehran, he says,
hold the key to the region's future.
The Vermont Guardian recently published
an excerpt of Lester Brown's new book, Outgrowing the
Earth: The Food Security Challenge. In the first four
years of this decade, Brown says, consumption exceeded world
grain production, and last year consumption and production
were barely equal. World grain stocks have now fallen to
their lowest level in 30 years. Brown says grain prices
are up, and will continue to rise dramatically if shortfalls
continue, and China competes more vigorously in the world
market for the scarce food supply.
Looking ahead to the future, Freeman Dyson
writes in Technology Review that Darwinian evolution
is finished as a significant evolutionary force. Biological
evolution has now been replaced by cultural evolution, he
says, which is happening much more rapidly. And in the future,
he says, humans will play with the boundaries between species,
transferring genes on a whim.
David Forrest
we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com
SCIENCE
'Artificial
Life' Comes Step Closer - [BBC] Researchers at Rockefeller
University in the US have made the first tentative steps
towards creating a form of artificial life. Their creations,
small synthetic vesicles that can process (express) genes,
resemble a crude kind of biological cell.
Human
Stem Cells Trigger Immune Attack - [Nature] Most human
embryonic stem-cell lines, including those available to
federally funded researchers in the United States, may be
useless for therapeutic applications. The body's immune
defences would probably attack the cells, say US researchers.
Lunar
Colony to Run on Moon Dust and Robots - [New Scientist]
Simulated moon dust has been used to make a key component
of a working solar cell, giving an unexpected boost to President
George W. Bush's project of setting up a colony on the moon.
Scientists
Unravel First Step in Translating Genetic Information in
Order to Build a Protein - [Medical
Net] A team led by Johns Hopkins scientists has unraveled
the first step in translating genetic information in order
to build a protein, only to find that it's not one step
but two.
X-Ray
Movies Reveal Insect Flight, Muscle Motion - [Science
Daily] Watching flies fly may not seem like high-tech science,
but for researchers using the Western Hemisphere's most
brilliant X-rays, located at the Advanced Photon Source
at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory,
it not only helps explain how insects fly but also may someday
aid in understanding human heart function.
Life,
Reinvented - [Wired] A group of MIT engineers wanted
to model the biological world. But, damn, some of nature's
designs were complicated! So they started rebuilding from
the ground up -- and gave birth to synthetic biology.
Animal-Human
Hybrids Spark Controversy - [National Geographic] Scientists
have begun blurring the line between human and animal by
producing chimeras -- a hybrid creature that's part human,
part animal.
TECHNOLOGY
Tailor-Made
Skin from 'Ink' Printer - [Manchester News] Scientists
at Manchester University have developed a printer able to
produce human skin to help wounds heal. It could be used
on patients who have suffered burns and disfigurements.
With more research it could even replace broken bones.
Machine
Learns Games 'Like a Human' - [New Scientist] A computer
that learns to play a 'scissors, paper, stone' by observing
and mimicking human players could lead to machines that
automatically learn how to spot an intruder or perform vital
maintenance work, say UK researchers.
DNA
Helps Nanoparticles Pull Themselves Together
- [Scientific American] A burgeoning area of nanotechnology
research is the development of tiny drug delivery systems
that can target diseased cells specifically, leaving healthy
ones untouched. New results suggest a novel synthetic approach
could cut the manufacturing time for one type of nanoscale
delivery system in half.
Intel
to Release Machine Learning Libraries - [New Scientist]
Microprocessor company Intel is soon to release a set of
Bayesian network software libraries to help software developers
to build better machine learning capabilities into their
programs.
Cars
Face Virus Threat: IBM - [Australian IT] Security headaches
such as viruses and spam threaten to spread to a more devices
- from phones to car engines, a new survey has found. The
report, published by IBM Security Intelligence Services,
a consulting arm of the world's largest computer company,
paints a picture of rampant, albeit controllable, security
dangers.
Secure
Containers for $10 a Pop - [Business Week] A new wireless
device from GE and a Chinese partner could be a big step
toward safe, swift passage for shipments around the world.
EU
Gives Green Light to Car Safety Radar - [MSNBC] The
European Commission allocated a radar frequency that will
let cars with the proper equipment detect nearby objects
and warn drivers to avoid them, German-American automaker
DaimlerChrysler said.
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Wal-Mart
-- Yesteryear’s GM? - [The Globalist] Wal-Mart
is an economy of its own -- with profound implications for
its customers, workers and the communities where it operates.
Just how great is Wal-Mart’s reach today? Nelson Lichtenstein
argues in this Globalist Paper that General Motors provides
a recent historic example that may show the way Wal-Mart
is headed.
Asia
Aviation to Defy Global Trend in 05 - [Washington Times]
The aviation sector in the Asia Pacific and Middle East
region will continue to defy global industry trends in 2005,
maintaining high growth and profitability after a record
2004.
Wal-Mart
to Source 1.2 Billion Dlrs Worth of Products from India
- [New Kerala] Global retail giant Wal-Mart is expected
to source 1.2 billion dollars worth of goods from factories
and suppliers in India during 2005.
The
Jack Welch Of The Meat Aisle - [Business Week] Lawrence
Johnston has decided that Albertsons will have to make grocery
shopping something it not always is: quick and easy. If
all goes as planned, in 18 months shoppers in all 2,500
stores will use handheld scanners that are connected to
a company data base and a global-positioning-satellite system.
China
Turns Commercial Battlefield for Multinationals - [The
Star] According to China's Ministry of Commerce, among the
2004 Fortune Global 500, about 450 have made investments
in China, 400 have established research centres and many
have moved in their regional headquarters.
The
Bell Tolls for Long Distance - [Boston Globe] Between
fixed-price local-national packages from wireless carriers,
Baby Bells, and cable companies, and alternatives to conventional
long distance like e-mail and Internet telephone service,
long-distance phone service as a stand-alone operation has
gone into a terminal decline.
The
Fiefdom Syndrome - [Chief Executive] Many large companies
suffer the ravages of fiefdoms, turf wars and bureaucracy.
It’s a problem that begins when individuals, groups
or divisions try to protect their turfs, reshaping their
environments to gain as much control as possible. Managers
and employees become fixated on their own activities, their
own careers and their own territories to the detriment of
those around them. The fiefdoms become dangerously insular,
losing perspective and awareness. Ultimately, they lose
their ability to act consistently on behalf of the greater
good of the company.
SOCIETY
In
Age of Security, Firm Mines Wealth Of Personal Data
- [Washington Post] It began in 1997 as a company that sold
credit data to the insurance industry. But over the next
seven years, as it acquired dozens of other companies, Alpharetta,
Ga.-based ChoicePoint Inc. became an all-purpose commercial
source of personal information about Americans, with billions
of details about their homes, cars, relatives, criminal
records and other aspects of their lives.
Higher
Risks for Retiring: Bush's Ownership Society Would Be Great
for the Haves - [San Francisco Chronicle] In contrast
to the New Deal, the Ownership Society will have optional
elements with greater rewards but far greater risk. While
the administration's Social Security plan taps into taxes
that workers are already paying, a key element of the Ownership
Society is that to take full advantage of it, you must put
up a great deal more of your own money.
Electronic
Eavesdropping Rising - [ZDNet UK] The danger of attacks
with insider information was illustrated earlier this month
with the arrest of a California man accused of breaking
into mobile phone network T-Mobile USA's database and reading
emails and files of the US Secret Service, and by the exploits
of a hacker who breached a hospital's database and changed
mammogram results.
Global
Youth Jobless Rate a Warning: ILO - [Financial Express]
Youth, they say, should be led by their dreams. But for
some 88 million young people aged 18-24 -- who are out of
work in the world today -- the means to even satisfy their
basic needs, leave alone dreams, seem far, far away.
China
on March to an Aging Society - [Detroit Free Press]
If the parks and plazas of major cities such as Beijing
and Shanghai seem to contain more old folks than youngsters
these days, it's because city populations are aging. China's
two largest cities have crossed a threshold: Both have more
retirees 60 and older than children under age 15. Those
cities are a prelude: China soon will face a rapid increase
in its elderly population.
Alzheimer's
Threatens a Generation - [Arizona Republic] Boomers
have defined the nation's social, political, economic and
cultural trends for decades. Now, as the oldest boomers
approach their 60s, they are harbingers of a health care
trend that is expected to see the number of Alzheimer's
sufferers soar from today's 4.5 million to between 11 million
and 16 million by 2050.
Russia's
Future Hazy as Men's Health Declines - [Myrtle Beach
Online] Government statistics show that the average Russian
man lives 58.6 years, compared with 73 years for the average
Russian woman. In 1990, life expectancy for men was 63.4
years.
GLOBAL POLITICS
World
View - Lindsey Hilsum Glimpses the Next World Order
- [New Statesman] The 21st century, say US analysts, will
not be American. It will belong to China and India, and
it may bring a cyberspace caliphate that commands Muslim
loyalty across the world.
Reconnecting
Paris and Washington - [The Globalist] U.S.-French relations
have been turbulent for some years and came to a head over
the Iraq war. Now, both sides are trying to find a better
footing with each other. In this Read My Lips feature --
adapted from a November 2004 speech -- we present some of
the most poignant thoughts from France’s President
Jacques Chirac on this touchy subject.
The
Scramble for Oil is Globalizing the G-7 - [International
Herald Tribune] The Group of 7 leading industrialized nations
is not what it used to be. That was amply demonstrated during
the energy scare last year, when the most powerful economies
stood impotent in the face of surging energy costs that
threatened global growth.
Japan
Wary of Emerging China - [Seattle Times] In the eyes
of Shintaro Ishihara and others, Japan used to be too meek
and mild, allowing an overbearing United States to push
it around. Ishihara was one of the authors of the best seller
"The Japan That Can Say No," a call for national
spine-stiffening that framed the foreign-policy debate in
the 1990s. One of Japan's responses was to build a thriving
relationship with China, whether the United States liked
it or not. Now Ishihara and Japanese nationalists like him
are at it again, but in reverse.
Ranking
the Rich 2004 - [Foreign Policy] The second annual CGD/FP
Commitment to Development Index ranks 21 rich nations on
how their aid, trade, investment, migration, environment,
security, and technology policies help poor countries. Find
out who’s up, who’s down, why Denmark and the
Netherlands earn the top spots, and why Japan -- once again
-- finishes last.
The
Washington-Jerusalem-Tehran Triangle - [The Globalist]
The Middle East's byzantine power structures are getting
more complex by the day. Any action by one of the region's
three main powers — the United States, Iran or Israel
— may provoke a dangerous reaction. Martin Walker,
Editor-in-Chief of United Press International, takes a closer
look.
Beijing
Counts Cost of Supporting an Embarrassing Old Friend
- [Yale Global] During the Korean War, hundreds of thousands
of Chinese soldiers came to the aid of North Korea in battling
US forces. Over fifty years later, it is clear that history
will not repeat itself: China is not prepared to make sacrifices
for a regime that has become a political embarrassment and
a possible threat to China's own economic development.
ENVIRONMENT
Nuclear
Now! - [Wired] We now know that the risks of splitting
atoms pale beside the dreadful toll exacted by fossil fuels.
Radiation containment, waste disposal, and nuclear weapons
proliferation are manageable problems in a way that global
warming is not.
Home
PCs Predict Hotter Earth - [Wired] Global warming may
ramp up average temperatures by 20 degrees Fahrenheit in
less than 50 years, according to the first climate prediction
experiment relying on the distributed computer power of
90,000 personal computers.
Food:
The Real Challenge to Global Security - [Vermont Guardian]
In each of the first four years of this new century, world
grain production has fallen short of consumption. The shortfalls
in 2002 and 2003, the largest on record, and the smaller
ones in 2000 and 2001 were covered by drawing down stocks.
These four consecutive shortfalls in the world grain harvest
have dropped stocks to their lowest level in 30 years.
EU
Looks to Future on Emissions - [CBS News] The European
Union head office proposed plans for curbing greenhouse
gas emissions beyond 2012 on Wednesday, arguing that environmental
protection need not come at the expense of economic growth
if countries work together.
Drought's
Growing Reach - [NASA Earth Observatory] The percentage
of Earth’s land area stricken by serious drought more
than doubled from the 1970s to the early 2000s, according
to a new analysis by scientists at the National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Widespread drying occurred
over much of Europe and Asia, Canada, western and southern
Africa, and eastern Australia. Rising global temperatures
appear to be a major factor, says NCAR’s Aiguo Dai,
lead author of the study.
Global
Warming: Mountains Face Tsunami Risk - [Khaleej Times]
Mountain areas have long been recognised as being vulnerable
to global warming, with rising temperatures damaging a fragile
habitat for wildlife and threatening the future of low-altitude
ski resorts. Now, though, a further threat is starting to
emerge: tsunamis.
Delaware
Bucks Bush's Clean-Air Inaction - [Delaware Online]
Delaware's largest power plants will get draft notices this
week for a regional breakaway war on climate-changing "greenhouse
gases," just as the United Nations puts into effect
its Kyoto Protocol to combat global warming.
THE FUTURE
The
Darwinian Interlude - [Technology Review] Now, after
some three billion years, the Darwinian era is over. The
epoch of species competition came to an end about 10 thousand
years ago when a single species, Homo sapiens, began to
dominate and reorganize the biosphere. Since that time,
cultural evolution has replaced biological evolution as
the driving force of change.
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