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Innovation Watch Newsletter 4.03
February 5, 2005

ISSN: 1712-9834


In this issue...


"The future is here," science-fiction writer William Gibson once said. "It's just not evenly distributed yet." Like a frog in slowly heating water, oblivious to the rising temperature, we may be unaware of the full impact of emerging change, though the signs are all around us. There are some notable examples in this issue.

Reuters news service reports that German scientists have found a new way to control the HIV virus, by targeting a protein in human cells that the virus uses for replication. The experimental chemical apparently has no toxic side-effects. While early results are promising, researchers say it typically requires five to ten years of testing for a drug to become available.

Scientific American reports that the weird science of quantum cryptography (see our February 2001 article, "Crazy Computing") has moved from the laboratory to commercial products. The technology is now being tested over much longer distances. The European Space Agency will experiment with space-to-ground transmissions. The European Union is planning to use quantum encryption in ground communication networks, to prevent eavesdropping by the Echelon surveillance system, operated by the United States in cooperation with Britain and other nations.

The BBC says scientists at the University of California have combined muscle cells from rats and silicon chips to create microscopic robots. These small devices crawl around on their own, without an external source of power. Professor Carlo Montemagno anticipates that muscle could eventually be used to drive small electric generators, to power computer chips.

DCM-Doll Capital Management -- a Silicon Valley venture capital firm -- began investing in China nine years ago. Business Week reports that two of the companies in its portfolio have now gone public, and the firm continues to make new deals. Co-founder David Chao says it has just finished raising $375 million in additional funds. Chao says that, in the technology sector, semiconductor-design, media services, next-generation Internet, and next-generation game companies or mobile-services companies are all attractive investments.

KFC is serving up its original Kentucky Fried Chicken recipe, and other unique dishes, in 1,200 locations in China. Parent company Yum Brands earned 15 percent of its operating profits -- more than $200 million -- in China last year. This is expected to grow to 18 percent in 2005.

The Christian Science Monitor reports concerns in some quarters that the Bush administration may be considering widespread mental-health screening of children in the United States, but says these concerns may be overblown. The New Freedom Commission on Mental Health, appointed by President Bush, produced a report in 2003 that discussed the benefits of mental-health screening of Americans of all ages, and schools as a possible place to evaluate children. There are no signs at the moment, the newspaper says, that the administration has any immediate plans to act on these recommendations.

Richard Gowan argues in The Globalist that the European Union and African Union should partner to create a more effective way of managing regional conflicts. He calls this "a NATO for Africa." Such an arrangement, he proposes, would move beyond the colonial history of European interventions -- allowing the African Union to request EU assistance, and engaging the African Union in joint operations.

The BBC reports on new research by Australian scientists that confirms a decline in the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Comparison of records since the 1950s shows dimming of 10% in the USA, and as much as 30% in parts of the former Soviet Union. This may affect world rainfall patterns, scientists say, and may have contributed to drought conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Based on interviews with experts, the Christian Science Monitor speculates on what the future might look like in the United States. Nat Irvin II, a professor of future studies at Wake Forest University, says the country should expect a 74 percent increase in the number of people over 50 by 2050; 90 percent of the population increase in minorities; and a significant rise in diversity, with implications for music, food and other cultural experiences. Architect Sarah Susanka anticipates major changes in the built environment. Homes, she says, will be manufactured, and virtual reality will allow buyers to experience them before they are assembled.

David Forrest


we welcome your comments and feedback at mail@innovationwatch.com


SCIENCE

German Team Finds New Way to Block HIV Replication - [Reuters] German scientists have found a new way to prevent the HIV virus from replicating, offering hope in the face of the virus's increasing resistance to existing drugs.

Genetic Shuffle Linked to Fertility - [MSNBC] Researchers working in Iceland say they have identified a genetic pattern that makes some Europeans more fertile. The genetic pattern, known as an inversion, is a stretch of the DNA code that runs backwards in people who carry it.

Europe Needs Space Nuclear Power Options - [Space News] Europe will have no choice but to develop nuclear-powered satellites if it wants to continue to explore the outer solar system, European Space Agency (ESA) Science Director David Southwood said.

Rats Can Tell Two Languages Apart From Speech Cues, Sharing An Ability With Humans And Monkeys - [Science Daily] Mammals other than humans can distinguish between different speech patterns. Neuroscientists in Barcelona report that rats, like humans (newborn and adult) and Tamarin monkeys, can extract regular patterns in language from speech (prosodic) cues.

Universe Measured by Mapping 260,000 Galaxies - [Boston Globe] By looking at a vast swath of sky, astronomers said they have figured out a way to measure the universe -- using a kind of "cosmological ruler." Finding the cosmic ruler required two teams of scientists to map more than 260,000 galaxies.

Genetic Mutation Linked to Parkinson's Disease - [WebIndia] A mutation in a recently discovered Parkinson's disease gene is believed to be the most common genetic cause of inherited forms of the disease, reports a study published in the Lancet.

Possible Planet Caught on Film... Again - [MSNBC] Astronomers are highly confident that they've taken the first photograph of a planet outside our solar system. Make that two photographs.


TECHNOLOGY

Software Tool Helps Visualize Genomes - [Science Daily] The Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard have created and released for free a software browser to help researchers better visualize and manipulate entire genomes.

Best-Kept Secrets - [Scientific American] Beginning in 2003, two companies -- id Quantique in Geneva and MagiQ Technologies in New York City -- introduced commercial products that send a quantum-cryptographic key. And, after demonstrating a record transmission distance of 150 kilometers, NEC is to come to market with a product at the earliest next year. Others, such as IBM, Fujitsu and Toshiba, have active research efforts.

'Smart Bombs' Could Treat Cancer - [Guardian] Tiny exploding capsules could be used to deliver cancer drugs directly to tumours without affecting healthy cells, it was reported. Scientists in Australia are developing the "smart bombs" which are designed to allow pinpoint accurate treatment.

Israeli 'Nano-Lightbulbs' Could Help Detect Drug's Efficiency
- [Israel21C] Polymer patches placed on the walls of living cells actually change color and light up as a result of events occurring on the cell surface.

Robot Makers Say World Cup Will Be Theirs By 2050 - [Scotsman] A Japanese consortium of robotics experts has thrown down the gauntlet to future players of the beautiful game [of football] by claiming their engineered humans will play mankind off the park within 45 years.

Patients Put on Thinking Caps - [Wired] Any geek worthy of the moniker has dreamed of connecting his or her brain directly to a computer for blissful freedom from keyboard and mouse. For quadriplegics, that ability would give life a whole new dimension.

'Living' Robots Powered by Muscle - [BBC] Tiny robots powered by living muscle have been created by scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles. The devices were formed by "growing" rat cells on microscopic silicon chips, the researchers report in the journal Nature Materials.


BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

The Dangers of Economic Isolationism - [The Globalist] Are global companies -- and everyone who believes in free and fair trade -- in danger of losing the battle of public opinion? Mike Eskew, Chairman and CEO of UPS, acknowledges that those opposed to globalization have stated their case much clearer than those in favor of global integration. He outlines five ways in which business should step up to the challenge.

Global IT Outsourcing Deals Rocket Up to $163bn - [Silicon.com] The IT Services Contract Tracker by analyst Datamonitor and outsourcing advisers Everest Group found the combined value of 2004 deals globally rose by 37 per cent to $163bn.

Microsoft's Gates Wants Meeting with Brazil's Lu - [eWeek] Microsoft Corp. is lobbying Brazil's government to agree to a meeting between the company's chairman, Bill Gates, and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at the World Economic Forum next week, a Brazilian official said. The country has taken a prominent role in the so-called free software movement, an effort that champions free computer operating systems like Linux as an alternative to Microsoft's Windows program.

Virgin Boss Unveils Space Trips - [BBC] Space tourism is less than three years away, Sir Richard Branson has claimed. There are already 13,500 potential passengers for the £100,000 ($190,000) "Virgin Galactic spaceliner" trip, Sir Richard told the BBC. The entrepreneur is having five "spaceliners" built in the U.S. by the team which launched the SpaceShipOne rocket plane last year.

Enron Effect: The Changed Corner Office - [Christian Science Monitor] Experts say the trials already completed -- and the jail sentences under way -- have had a big impact on corporate behavior. Lawyers for white-collar defendants say that CEOs are now pressuring underlings to state earnings accurately. Thanks to Martha Stewart, executives are more aware of the dangers of lying to prosecutors. Corporate leaders also know that Congress now requires them to personally vouch for their companies' earnings statements.

Kentucky Fried China - [MSNBC] China’s relentless appetite for the colonel’s chicken has KFC on a building boom in the world’s most populous country, with 1,200 locations, soaring profits and a menu that mixes in bamboo shoots and lotus roots.

VCs in the Wild, Wild East - [Business Week] In 1996, Silicon Valley venture capitalists were more keen on finding another Netscape next door than in going beyond US borders. That year some of them shook their heads when David Chao co-founded DCM-Doll Capital Management, a VC firm that planned to invest up to 25% of its funds in Asian technology and telecommunications markets.


SOCIETY

Teens Braking at Hitting Road - [Journal Gazette] while the adults weren’t looking, teens have stopped driving at 16 the way they used to. In a shift that has overtaken the culture virtually without notice, a confluence of forces has redefined the concept of “driving age.”

Technology Changing Hajj Pilgrimage - [ABC News] Modern technology has changed the way Muslims experience the hajj pilgrimage, a rite required of able-bodied faithful who can afford it at least once in a lifetime.

Saving Seed Is Latest Tech Piracy - [Wired] Monsanto's "seed police" snared soy farmer Homan McFarling in 1999, and the company is demanding he pay it hundreds of thousands of dollars for alleged technology piracy. McFarling's sin? He saved seed from one harvest and replanted it the following season, a revered and ancient agricultural practice.

Blacks, Whites Still Separated by Wealth - [ABC News] Forty years after the passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act and decades after the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. made strides in racial equality, America remains split along racial lines divided by the color green. Economic equality has become the paramount civil rights issue of the 21st century, civil rights advocates said as they prepared to celebrate King's birthday.

Children Make Deadly Soldiers in the World's Rebel Groups - [Christian Science Monitor] Disparate groups in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, India, and Burma (Myanmar) are fighting for different reasons, but they share a common characteristic: their systematic recruitment of children.

Beating the Bullies - [TIME Europe] Abusive behavior is on the rise in European schools -- and both victims and perps are getting younger. Here's how governments, teachers and parents are fighting back.

Screening a Child's Mind - [Christian Science Monitor] Should every child be tested for mental-health problems? Although there are no present plans, a federal report stirs fears the US will require it eventually.


GLOBAL POLITICS

Governing Russia: Putin's Federal Dilemmas - [New Europe Review] Russia must contend with the potential resurgence of ethno-political and inter-communal conflicts that marked the collapse of the USSR -- including the conflict between the Ossetian and Ingush communities around Beslan -- and the further deterioration of the region's economy, social conditions, and political structures.

Global Economy Will Be Built by BRICs - [Hindu Business Line] The importance of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) -- as a source of new demand and as a share of global spending -- could increase sharply over the next few decades. As a result, the world might look very different than it does today and sooner than most people expected.

Biological Attack Likely by 2020, Report Warns - [Government Executive] A terrorist group is "likely" to conduct an attack using biological weapons by 2020, according to a report released by a CIA think tank.

CIA Sees China, India Emerging as World Powers - [The Union Leader] India and China increasingly will flex powerful political and economic muscles as major new global players by 2020, an in-house CIA think tank said, likening the rise of the two countries to the emergence of the United States as a world power a century ago.

The Transatlantic Yin and Yang - [The Globalist] The U.S.-Europe relationship has been turned on its head. Once united against a common Cold War enemy, the two sides of the Atlantic are now growing farther apart. Stephen Klimczuk -- Director of A.T. Kearney's Global Business Policy Council -- looks at this unlikely role reversal. He also examines the prospects for future transatlantic harmony.

A Blueprint to Fight Poverty around the World - [Christian Science Monitor] The developing world is not an unrelieved landscape of despair. When high-level government vision and support are accompanied by a significant increase in funds -- often aid from richer countries -- problems of poverty can be overcome, according to a detailed new UN report.

Can Europe Build a NATO for Africa? - [The Globalist] Africa’s ongoing crisis -- from the genocide in Darfur to civil conflicts in other countries -- continues to defy easy solutions. Richard Gowan of the Foreign Policy Centre argues that the EU should partner with the African Union to provide security and stability. He outlines how an organization modeled on the role NATO played during the Cold War could get the job done for Africa.


ENVIRONMENT

Grid Computing to Combat Global Warming - [ZDNet UK] Researchers claimed that grid computing may be the answer to managing the increasing number of renewable energy sources that could eventually be integrated into the UK's power network

Hybrid Buzz - [Metro Times] As many as 35 different hybrid models are expected to be available in the United States by the year 2008. Availability, however, doesn’t mean dominance. In a report released last year, the US Department of Energy predicted that hybrid market share in the US could be as high as 15 percent by 2012.

Why the Sun Seems to be 'Dimming' - [BBC] We are all seeing rather less of the Sun, according to scientists who have been looking at five decades of sunlight measurements. They have reached the disturbing conclusion that the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface has been gradually falling.

Dioxin Found in German Eggs - [BBC] Germany has called for higher environmental standards on farms after free-range eggs were found to contain the cancer causing chemical dioxin.

'UK Seas are in Crisis' says WWF - [BBC] Britain's seas are in crisis, with key species in serious decline, according to conservationists. A report by the WWF blames inadequate planning and poor management.

Cities Ban Cars to Lower Pollution Levels - [Scotsman] People in Rome, Milan and other Italian cities got around on public transport, bicycles, on foot and even on horseback as car traffic was banned for several hours to lower air-pollution levels.

Study Links Child Cancer to Pollutants - [MSNBC] Most childhood cancers are probably caused by exposure in the womb to environmental and industrial pollutants that have been inhaled by the mother, a British researcher said.


THE FUTURE

The Future of Homes and Housing - [Christian Science Monitor] In what kinds of houses and communities will Americans be living in 2020? What kind of jobs will people hold? Will fewer of us be married? Writers Kim Campbell, Clayton Collins, Marilyn Gardner, and Elizabeth Lund sought answers to these questions -- and more -- from eight experts whose jobs require them to predict what our lives will be like in 15 years.


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