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Seldom a month goes by without significant
developments in biotechnology and genetics. In one of the
featured articles, MSNBC's Kathleen Wren discusses systems
biology and its implications for predictive medicine. In
the future, she says, less effort will be spent on treating
human disease, and more on genetic diagnostics and disease
prevention.
Robots are rapidly moving from the lab into
common use -- in the home and in the military. According to
CNEWS, a UN survey forecasts that the number of household
robots will increase sevenfold by 2007. C|NET reports that
the US Army will begin using armed robots later this year.
The global economy continues to experience
massive change. China's Lenovo Group has become an overnight
leader in the world PC industry by acquiring IBM's PC business.
The author of a new book -- Rising Elephant -- predicts
that US IT workers will end up moving to India to find jobs.
And Business Week reports on the growing vulnerability
of the US dollar.
Turkish Press reports that, by 2015,
almost three billion people -- half of the world's population
-- will be able to speak English, marking a growing trend
towards "linguistic globalization." The number of
Chinese, Arabic and Spanish speakers is also expected to increase.
Global trade and political alliances are
shifting. The Christian Science Monitor reports that
South America's leaders have declared their intention to
create a South American Community of Nations -- a free-trade
area patterned after the European Union. China and other
Southeast nations will establish the world's largest common
market by 2010.
Concerns about global warming continue. Deutsche
Welle reports that scientists now believe greenhouse gases
must be reduced by as much as 60 percent to avoid environmental
catastrophe -- even as many countries are currently failing
to achieve the 5.2 percent target set under the Kyoto protocol.
Loss of biodiversity is also a pressing issue. Innovations
Report describes recent findings by Stanford University
biologists that up to 25 percent of the world's bird species
are under the threat of extinction.
In the concluding section of this newsletter,
we link to a series of articles published by Popular Science
on the future of the car. "Fifty years hence," author
Dan Neil says, "the automobile will be a kind of transportation
prosthesis, a semi-organic interface of man and machine that
will, with its great reserves of energy and intelligence,
be at the center of human existence."
We welcome your comments and feedback. Send
us an email at mail@innovationwatch.com and share your thoughts
about the future. Let us know what trends you think are most
important. Send us your favorite links.
Best wishes for a new year that is full of
opportunity, insight and innovation. May we collectively create
a better future.
David Forrest
SCIENCE
How
the Human Genome is Transforming Medicine - [MSNBC]
Ten or 20 years from now, a droplet of blood may be all
your doctor needs to catch a cancer in its earliest stages.
That droplet could also reveal which genetic diseases you
might develop later in life and which medicines, tailored
to your genetic makeup, are right for you.
Spider
Silks, The Ecological Materials of Tomorrow? - [Science
Daily] Spider silks could become the intelligent materials
of the future, according to a review article published this
month in the journal Microbial Cell Factories. The
characteristics of spider silk could have applications in
areas ranging from medicine to ballistics.
Monkey
Embryos Cloned for the First Time - [New Scientist]
Monkey embryos have been successfully cloned for the first
time, and embryonic stem cells have been extracted from
them, scientists reported.
Organizing
Genes into an Entire Ecosystem - [Red Nova] Less can
be more, at least with regard to how genes organize themselves
into an entire ecosystem. Two new studies reveal how genes
maintain control and don't run wild in a single organism,
and then how few genes it may take to predict new branches
on the tree of life.
Crows
as Clever as Great Apes, Study Says - [National Geographic]
Corvids may be even cleverer than we think. A new study
suggests their cognitive abilities are a match for primates
such as chimpanzees and gorillas. Furthermore, crows may
provide clues to understanding human intelligence.
Medicine's
Next Level - [MSNBC] With new insight into the mechanisms
that help keep your brain sharp, neurological researchers
move closer to improving your recall with a 'memory pill.'
Missing
Link Spotted in Planet Formation - [MSNBC] For several
years, scientists have been detecting planets around mature
stars and, separately, imaging dust disks around younger
stars. A strong theory has developed that planets form from
these disks of material, leftovers of the star formation
process.
TECHNOLOGY
UN
Report: Use of Robots to Surge - [cnews] The use of
robots around the home to mow lawns, vacuum floors, pull
guard duty and perform other chores is set to surge sevenfold
by 2007, says a new UN survey, which credits dropping prices
for the robot boom.
Brain
Prosthesis Passes Live Tissue Test - [New Scientist]
The world’s first brain prosthesis has passed the first
stages of live testing. The microchip,
designed to model a part of the brain called the hippocampus,
has been used successfully to replace a neural circuit in
slices of rat brain tissue kept alive in a dish. The prosthesis
will soon be ready for testing in animals.
Nanotech
Aids Green Hydrogen Production - [The Register] A UK
company has developed a nano-crystalline material that will
dramatically improve the production of hydrogen by using
solar energy to split water more efficiently into its elemental
parts. Hydrogen Solar says its efficiency rate is now at
eight per cent -- just two per cent shy of the 10 per cent
benchmark accepted for commercial production.
The
Tangled Internet: Is it Time for a New One? - [Christian
Science Monitor] By some counts, the Internet turned 35
years old this fall. But far from entering middle age, it
seems to be growing into a rebellious teenager who has no
idea what he will be when he grows up.
Quantum
Errors Can Be Corrected - [Physics Web] Physicists in
the US have demonstrated a method for correcting errors
in quantum bits based on trapped ions. The result could
bring large-scale quantum computers a step closer to reality.
Army
to Deploy Robots that Shoot - [c|net] Next year, the
U.S. Army will give robots machine guns, although humans
will firmly be in control of them.
ANTS
- Autonomous Nano-Technology Swarm - A NASA mission That
Will Launch Sometime Between 2020 and 2030 - [nanotechwire]
Cutting edge research at the University of Ulster into how
to make complex computers and communications systems manage
themselves could power the next generation of US space probes.
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
Author
Says Offshoring 'Real WMD' for U.S. - [Datamation] America's
high-end, high-paying IT jobs are increasingly moving to
India, threatening the U.S.'s predominant position in the
world and setting India up to become the next superpower,
according to the author of a new book, Rising Elephant.
Translating
Brand Success Globally - [CNN] Creating a product or
a brand image that is effective beyond its local marketplace
is a challenge most international companies face.
The
Makings of a Meltdown - [Business Week] Why the danger
of a stampede away from the dollar remains.
Futuristic
Consumers Set to Revitalise City Centres - [Scotsman]
Research by the Centre for Future Studies suggests the days
of a tiring trawl laden with bags through shops could soon
be over, as home delivery becomes the norm for “almost
all” consumer goods.
Big
Blue's Bold Step Into China - [Business Week] It doesn't
take a genius to see why IBM's sale of its $10 billion-a-year
PC business to China's Lenovo Group Ltd relieves a huge
headache for Big Blue.
E-Tailing
Finally Hits Its Stride - [Business Week] As it gains
popularity, online shopping transforms how all merchants
operate.
Climate
Change Hits Bottom Line - [BBC] The World Meteorological
Organisation (WMO) has announced that 2004 is expected to
be the fourth warmest year worldwide since records began.
And the insurance industry says this year will face unprecedented
claims for damage from weather-related disasters.
SOCIETY
Family
Trends Include Fewer Legal Marriages - [The Register]
Common-law couples are the fastest growing type of family
in Canada, according to the report, Profiling Canada's Families
III, by The Vanier Institute of the Family.
A
Tale of Two Indias - [Time Asia] Economic reforms have
produced a new breed of billionaires amid millions of the
world's poorest people. Is this an acceptable price of modernization?
Alums
Back on Campus - [University Business] Baby Boomers
are flocking to campus retirement communities and, in turn,
pumping money back into the school.
A
Generation Comes of Age on the Internet - [cnews] Even
when he's asleep, Scott Kearnan is hooked into the Internet.
He just turns down the volume on his computer, so he's not
awakened by the "brrring" of a late-night instant
message.
Top
University Axes Pure Physics - [Scotsman] Newcastle
University was criticised for its “short-sighted”
decision to axe all its pure physics degrees. The
university, one the leading Russell Group of institutions,
said it was concentrating on other subjects because they
were more popular with students.
Internet
Vital for Future Success - [WebUser] Some 23 million
people will still be without internet access in 20 years,
excluding them from essential services such as medical advice
and education, according to a new report.
Three
Billion People Could Speak English by 2015 - [Turkish
Press] Global understanding could improve dramatically over
the next 10 years through the simple fact that by 2015,
a good proportion of the planet's population will be able
to speak English, according to a study.
GLOBAL POLITICS
India,
Russia to Jointly Launch 18 Navigation Satellites -
[India Monitor] Taking their strategic partnership to space,
India and Russia are set to enter into an agreement to jointly
launch 18 navigation satellites to restore, develop and
commercialise the ex-soviet global navigation system Glonass.
Dire
Straits - [Time Asia] Ships that pass through some of
the busiest waterways in Asia are often the target of pirates.
Is a terrorist attack next?
Europe’s
New Divisions - [The Economist] Russia and the European
Union will spend much of the next few years sparring over
the countries that lie between them -- and much else besides.
China
Goes Shopping - [Business Week] Lenovo-IBM is only the
highest-profile deal yet in a wave of Western acquisitions
that is certain to build.
Tectonic
Trends in Trade - [Christian Science Monitor] Two political
tremors in recent days reveal that the global trading system
may be creaking and groaning into isolated blocs of countries
-- without the United States.
Spain
and UK Press for a Thaw in EU Diplomatic Freeze on Cuba
- [Scotsman] The European Union is considering a shift in
policy on Cuba that would get it back on speaking terms
with Fidel Castro’s government, diplomats said.
U.S.
Slips in Luring World’s Brightest - [International
Herald Tribune] U.S. universities, which for half a century
have attracted the world's best and brightest students with
little effort, are suddenly facing intense competition as
higher education undergoes rapid globalization.
ENVIRONMENT
Climate
Control After Kyoto - [Deutsche Welle] With the Kyoto
Protocol officially taking effect early next year, the 10th
annual UN Climate Conference in Buenos Aires kicks off on
a good note. But there is still much work ahead to cut the
output of greenhouse gases.
Fill
'er Up -- At Home and With Hydrogen - [MSNBC] If a major
automaker has its way, some day you'll be able to heat your
home, warm your water and refuel your car all from a unit
that makes hydrogen from natural gas.
Global
Bird Populations Face Dramatic Decline in Coming Decades
- [Innovations Report] Ten percent of all bird species are
likely to disappear by the year 2100, and another 15 percent
could be on the brink of extinction, according to a new
study by Stanford University biologists. This dramatic loss
is expected to have a negative impact on forest ecosystems
and agriculture worldwide and may even encourage the spread
of human diseases.
Europe
Heatwaves 'Soon Routine' - [BBC] A stark warning of
the probable effects of global warming in Europe has been
given by a UK climate research group.
Sea
Knowledge Not Very Deep - [Wired] A newly created marine
science web portal containing 5.2 million records revealed
for the first time that 95 percent of all observations of
ocean life happen near the surface.
Recycling
Taken to a New Level: Buildings - [MSNBC] As companies
become more environmentally aware, that attitude is reflected
in the buildings they work in and the ones they renovate
or tear down.
Inter-Linking
of Rivers -- Untested Hype, Unresolved Issues
- [Hindu Business Line] The project to interlink six major
rivers promises to remain bedevilled for a considerable
time by unresolved engineering, operational and financial
issues.
THE FUTURE
The
Future of the Car - [Popular Science] We have reached
an odd, maybe unique point in the history of technology,
when the distant future is easier to imagine than the more
proximate months and years ahead.
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