|
Is it possible to predict how long one will
live? Can we forecast future trends in energy consumption
and industrial growth? Can we foresee the course of "old"
diseases like tuberculosis and "new" diseases
like AIDS? Do fluctuations in the world's economy occur
at regular, and thus predictable, intervals?
Until now, foreseeing the future has been
the domain of fortune-tellers and crystal ball-gazers. In
Predictions, Theodore Modis presents the mathematical
and scientific techniques that will enable us to anticipate
many future trends and events with a high degree of accuracy.
Bold, illuminating, and utterly compelling,
Predictions jolts us out of traditional patterns
of thought to answer a host of questions about what lies
ahead for us as individuals as well as for our society as
a whole. The book draws upon the amazing science of S-curves
to explore -- and explode -- the assumptions we might make
about everything from crime rates and car safety to life
expectancy and artistic achievement. It gives us a fascinating
new way to understand our society and ourselves, both in
interpreting the past and predicting the future.
For instance, what would you say if someone
told you that most mammals die at the same age? Impossible?
Only if you measure age in years and months. Things look
different if you count the number of heartbeats. Under natural
conditions, the average lifetime of rabbits, dogs, cows,
elephants and humans comprises about one billion heartbeats.
It is only the rate of the heartbeat that varies.
Pointing out that once a natural growth
process has been established its future course is predictable,
Modis uses S-curves to chart that process, whether it is
future populations of cars and computers, the life expectancy
of creative geniuses, or the frequency of economic booms
and busts. He illuminates such diverse subjects as the staying
power of new products, the birthrate among women, the origins
of Christianity, and the impetus behind Columbus's discovery
of the New World. His predictions include: deaths from AIDS
will peak shortly after 1992 and will never account for
more than one percent of all deaths in the United States;
fatal car accidents will increase by 20 percent during the
1990s; the incidence of major nuclear accidents will subside
from the early 1980s, which witnessed five major accidents
in three years, to the point where we can expect in the
1990s not more than one accident in a period of five years.
Fully illustrated with S-curve graphs, and
highly accessible to the general reader, Predictions
scientifically reveals an unexpected order and simplicity
in our lives. With thought-provoking insights into how,
when, and why society undergoes changes, Predictions
takes you on an exciting, intellectually stimulating, and
unforgettable adventure.
Theodore Modis is a management science
consultant at Digital Equipment Corporation International
and has taught at Columbia and Geneva universities. He lives
in Geneva, Switzerland.
|
