Michael Raynor, a distinguished fellow with Deloitte Research in Boston and adjunct professor at the Richard Ivey School of Business in London, Ontario, published a landmark book last year -- The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success Leads to Failure (and What to Do About It). He talks about the tension between commitment and uncertainty in developing strategy, in a world that is now being buffeted by relentless change. We must deal with both, Raynor says. Uncertainty should be the concern of senior executives, while operating management deals with commitment and strategy execution.

It is how Raynor proposes to deal with uncertainty that is so interesting. We need multiple strategies, he says, to hedge for the eventuality that the expected future may not in fact come true. Core strategy sets direction that is robust in any eventuality. Contingent strategy positions an organization to deal with a number of alternative future scenarios. The art is in preserving flexibility, and not betting the organization's future on single strategic path that is cast in stone. Raynor gives many examples of good strategies gone wrong.

There is no doubt we need new tools in our strategy toolbox. No organization can develop effective strategy today without thinking much harder about alternative futures.