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"The world exhibits a growing sense
of futility as countries and international agencies repeatedly
attack deficiencies in our social systems while the symptoms
continue to worsen. National legislation and international
development programs are debated and adopted with great
promise and hope but prove to be ineffective. Results often
seem unrelated to those expected when the programs were
planned."
World Dynamics represents a call
to arms against this futility. It shows the opportunity
for bringing the world of man into equilibrium with the
forces of his environment while there still remains time
and maneuvering room. Man throughout history has focused
on growth -- growth in population, standard of living, and
geographical boundaries. But in the fixed space of the world,
growth must in time give way to equilibrium. Malthus has
postulated food supply as the ultimate limiting factor,
but Professor Forrester suggests that pollution, crowding,
and depletion of resources can play equally critical roles.
Industrialization may be a more fundamental
threat than population. Due to limitations of the environment,
the entire world may not be able to rise to the standard
of living that has been set as an example by the industrialized
countries. Goals and aspirations of all countries must be
drastically readjusted as growth and expansion give way
to world equilibrium.
The book is the first step towards adapting
the principles of System Dynamics to the behavior of the
forces involved in the transition from growth to world equilibrium.
A stable enduring world equilibrium may require a combination
of social, economic, and technical changes that include
such counterintuitive policies as reducing the present emphasis
on food production and industrialization.
Jay W. Forrester is Professor of Management
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he directs
research and teaching in the field of "System Dynamics."
Before becoming Professor of Management, Dr. Forrester was
one of the nation's leading engineers in the design and
applications of computers and has made outstanding contributions
to digital computer technology. In 1968 he received the
Inventor of the Year Award from George Washington University
and in 1969 the Valdmer Poulsen Gold Medal from the Danish
Academy of Technical Sciences.
Professor Forrester has written many
widely known papers in engineering and management. His books
Industrial Dynamics,
1961 (Academy of Management, Best Management Book of the
Year Award, 1962) and Urban Dynamics,
1969 (Publications Award of the Organization Development
Council, 1969) laid the foundations for the application
of "System Dynamics" to the behavior of complex
social systems. He is a member of several professional societies
and is a Fellow of the National Academy of Engineering and
the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
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