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Japan today is a country in search of its
future. Its shining road to wealth -- the monolithic export
economy that brought Japan from postwar poverty to its present
fabulous prosperity -- has arrived at a dimly lit crossroads.
Growth has stalled and the trade surplus has dwindled; the
old, centralized, micro-managed way of doing things is clearly
breaking down. A steadily aging population, combined with
low birthrates, is placing new burdens on the working population,
and threatening the nation's high savings rate and its prospects
for sustaining high levels of productivity. The collapse
of the Tokyo stock market in the 1990s has hammered the
harsh message home: Japan must reinvent herself to meet
the changing world, even if this means abandoning those
unique business practices and national institutions that
have long defined it as "Japanese."
Drawing from a wide variety of primary sources,
noted asset manager and Japan analyst Milton Ezrati describes
how, in the midst of market chaos and bureaucratic opposition,
Japan is already taking the first steps toward renewed economic
growth and securing her place in the new world order. After
fifty years of relying almost exclusively on domestic production
she is expanding her manufacturing facilities abroad, especially
on the Asian mainland. As these foreign investments deepen,
she will begin to assume the role of Asia's "headquarters
nation," the region's chief exporter of ideas, expertise,
and capital. As she becomes ever more dependent on foreign
labor and cooperation, she will necessarily develop an aggressive
new foreign policy -- and an active new military -- to defend
her interests in the region and beyond.
All of these changes will strip Japan of
her present identity -- that of an isolationist commercial
giant -- and force her to become something more, a nation
among nations, with new and formidable powers -- economic,
financial, diplomatic, and military. Masterfully weaving
these perspectives together, Ezrati explores the risks of
this transformation -- for Japan and for the world -- as
Japan's future leaders take charge of their nation's destiny.
Absorbing and incisive, Kawari is
essential reading for anyone who wishes to understand the
profound and inevitable impact that Japan's metamorphosis
will have on global business, finance, and geopolitics.
Milton Ezrati has worked on Wall Street
for twenty-five years, and has served since 1987 as chief
investment officer for Nomura Asset Management, the American
investment arm of Japan's Nomura Securities. An expert on
Japanese finance, business, and politics, he has published
in a wide range of periodicals, including Foreign Affairs,
The American Scholar, and The New York Times.
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