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The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable, those possibilities were limited and the decisions they informed had a good chance of being sound. But now, the only constant is change itself. And, in a world where rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can often seem to be based more on luck than on judgement.
Despite the accelerating pace of change, there are methods for coping with unpredictability. The techniques described in this book will help you to think about uncertainty in a structured way, while new and updated case studies of scenario planning at work show that when theory becomes practice it can have a potent effect on organizational performance.
Complex times demand powerful tools. Scenario Planning delivers these tools, with the clear warning that those who feel the approach is too “futurist” to take seriously should think again.
After research at the University of California, Berkeley, and as a fellow at Somerville College, Oxford, Gill Ringland had a career in the IT industry. After roles in software houses, process control and semiconductor companies, she joined ICL. There she was responsible for building a £3bn new business over five years. As Head of Strategy she used scenarios to understand the complexities of the information & Communications industry and map ICL’s future.
Gill is past member of SRC’s Computing Science Committee and of the Council of the Economic and Social Research Council She is a Court Assistant of the Information Technologists Livery Company, an ICL Fellow Emeritus, a Fellow of the British Computer Society and Graduate of Stanford’s Executive Program.
Since 2002 Gill has written and consulted widely as Fellow and Chief Executive of St. Andrews Management Institute (SAM). She is the author of three books --Scenario Planning, Scenarios in Business and Scenarios in Public Policy -- all published by Wiley. Scenarios in Marketing, co-authored with Laurie Young is currently in preparation.
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