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Scenarios deals with how managers
can set out and negotiate a successful course into the future
for the organization in the face of significant uncertainty.
Uncertainties about the future are often
felt to be uncomfortable and thus "swept under the
table" by collapsing them into a single-line forecast.
This is tantamount to abdication of managerial responsibility.
At worst it means a wild jump in the dark.
Facing up to uncertainty changes the perspective
on the future completely. The secret of success moves from
"finding the best strategy" to "finding the
best process." Thinking about scenarios -- the different
plausible future environments that can be imagined -- is
the key to thinking the process through and to keep thinking
about it as the plans for the future unfold.
Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus
of attention needs to be on the ongoing "strategic
conversation," penetrating both the formal and informal
exchange of views through which the strategic understanding
develops -- and actions result.
Scenarios deals first with the principles
of organizational learning and then moves on to describe
practical and down-to-earth ways in which the organization
can develop its skill in conducting an ongoing scenario-based
strategy process. The methods described are based on many
years of practical experience of managers in both large
and small organizations; and they are grounded in solid
logic.
Kees van der Heijden is Professor of
General and Strategic Management at the Graduate Business
School, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, UK, and Visiting
Professor at Nijenrode University, Holland. He is a co-founder
of Global Business Network, Emeryville, California, and
is currently a Principal.
Before joining Strathclyde University
he was in charge of Royal Dutch/Shell's scenario planning,
as head of the Group's Business Environment Division. This
involved the general development of the process of scenario
planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role.
Prior to that he was head of Shell's internal strategy consulting
group, assisting management teams worldwide in strategy
development and implementation.
He specializes in scenario planning,
strategy development and institutional strategic management
processes and has consulted widely in all these areas.
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