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In the ever-changing world of science, new
instruments often lead to momentous discoveries that dramatically
transform our understanding. Today, with the aid of a bold
new instrument, scientists are embarking on a scientific
revolution as profound as that inspired by Galileo's telescope.
Out of the bits and bytes of computer memory, researchers
are fashioning silicon surrogates of the real world -- elaborate
"artificial worlds" -- that allow them to perform
experiments that are too impractical, too costly, or, in
some cases, too dangerous to do "in the flesh."
From simulated tests of new drugs to models
of the birth of planetary systems and galaxies to computerized
petri dishes growing digital life forms, these laboratories
of the future are the essential tools of a controversial
new scientific method. This new method is founded not on
direct observation and experiment but on the mapping of
the universe from real space into cyberspace. There is a
whole new science happening here -- the science of simulation.
The most exciting territory being mapped
by artificial worlds is the exotic new frontier of "complex,
adaptive systems." These systems involve living "agents"
that continuously change their behavior in ways that make
prediction and measurement by the old rules of science impossible
-- from environmental ecosystems to the system of a marketplace
economy. Their exploration represents the horizon for discovery
in the twenty-first century, and simulated worlds are charting
the course.
In Would-be Worlds, acclaimed author
John Casti takes readers on a fascinating excursion through
a number of remarkable silicon microworlds and shows us
how they are being used to formulate important new theories
and to solve a host of practical problems. We visit Tierra,
a "computerized terrarium" in which artificial
life forms known as biomorphs grow and mutate, revealing
new insights into natural selection and evolution. We play
a game of Balance of Power, a simulation of the complex
forces shaping geopolitics. And we take a drive through
TRANSIMS, a model of the city of Albuquerque, New Mexico,
to discover the root causes of events like traffic jams
and accidents.
Along the way, Casti probes the answers
to a host of profound questions these "would-be worlds"
raise about the new science of simulation. If we can create
worlds inside our computers at will, how real can we say
they are? Will they unlock the most intractable secrets
of our universe? Or will they reveal instead only the laws
of an alternate reality? How "real" do these models
need to be? And how real can they be? The answers to these
questions are likely to change the face of scientific research
forever.
John L. Casti is a member of the faculty
of the Santa Fe Institute and a professor at the Technical
University of Vienna. He is the author of Paradigms
Lost, Searching for Certainty, Complexification,
and Five Golden Rules (Wiley). He divides his time
between Santa Fe, New Mexico, and Vienna.
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