Crime in the Twilight Zone

by Cynthia Mooney, Senior Analyst,
and Arnold Brown, Chairman,
Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

The boundary between the virtual and the real is melting away, and the two worlds are beginning to merge -- and doing so quite seamlessly in some areas (such as crime, as we will discuss later) -- into a 21st century twilight zone. Discerning the difference between real and virtual will become increasingly difficult. In fact, it may become necessary to abandon the idea that there is any need to differentiate between the two.

Technology products are in development that will contribute to our immersion in the new twilight zone. The Tangible Media Group at MIT has created the I/O Brush that enables its user to pick up colors, textures and images from the real world in which they are operating and then paint them on to a digital screen. Video game images will eventually be beamed directly to players' retinas, enabling them to play their virtual games as they move about in the real world. Geographically-tagged content on the internet, coupled with the proliferation of wireless intern-connected devices with GPS, will enable location-based services and "deepen everyone's experience of place," as technology columnist John Udell imagines.

Uses for and improvements on virtual humans, or avatars, will continue to expand. A production company in England recently mounted a credible, virtual performance of Dylan Thomas reading his poetry -- despite the fact that there are no surviving motion pictures of the poet. Work is under way to develop a virtual professor with more human qualities so that it will be a more effective teacher than the "soulless" 3-D animations that are currently in use for some online instruction. The goal of the scientists working on this project is to create the ideal persona for facilitating learning, albeit one that can be completely controlled.

Other new devices don't fully merge the virtual and the real, but they do contribute to a growing comfort level in moving between the two worlds. Cell phones that can take a picture of a bar code on a product in a supermarket, transmit that code to a computer, and then receive back nutritional information, including how much exercise is needed to burn off the calories, are not so much an integration of the real and the virtual, but more of a collaboration. Medical devices that allow for continual monitoring of at-risk patients, computer screen "walls of knowledge" in operating rooms that contain complete information on a patient's health, and a camera phone device that will allow amateur naturalists to transmit photos for immediate flora and fauna identification fall into this same area of collaboration.

The internet has become a fully immersive reality, a place where the line between virtual and real has been effectively erased. Cyberspace is currently confined within the boundaries of earth, but work is underway to expand the internet into outer space with the InterPlaNet. On social networking sites such as MySpace, users wander around for hours and carry out their real lives, yet in an environment that transcends time and space. Crimes are now committed in cyberspace that enable criminals to make real money, the line between virtual and real cash is vanishing.

Advances in both information technology and biotechnology, along with expanding globalization and political changes, are fostering changes in the types of crimes that are committed, the scope of those crimes, and the methodology used. Infotech has made possible one of the most-discussed "new" crimes of the day identity theft. Glitches and weak spots in software allow criminals entrée into even the most complex, and supposedly secure, systems. Software developers and IT system managers are unable to stay ahead of the sophistication levels of identity thieves and hackers. In a game of one-upmanship, the security stakes are continually ratcheted up. For example, a newly devised program for discerning what data has been entered into a computer via simple audio recordings of keyboard clicks is yet another security threat that has arisen. As businesses, governments and organizations of all types around the world increasingly rely on larger and more complex IT systems, the financial costs and security risks for system failures are tremendous. Globally, an estimated $1 trillion was spent in 2005 on IT hardware, software and services.

As the volume of electronic records on individuals increases, more opportunities will open up for theft. The initiative to create a national medical database in the U.S. is just one example of the ways in which information on a country's citizens will be amassed. In the Netherlands, the government has plans to open electronic files on all children at birth that will track them throughout their lives.

Personal information theft will not only take place over the Internet, it will also occur in the arena of biotech. As genetic mapping becomes more refined and easier to do, individuals will be at risk of having their genetic identity stolen by those criminals who can decipher it from a dead skin cell or piece of hair that can be easily picked up. Thieves can also steal genetic identities by breaking into databases that contain DNA profiles alongside personal information. The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would allow for the collection of DNA from individuals who are arrested or detained, not only from those who are convicted of crimes as the current law allows.

Personal data is not the only thing criminals are stealing online. Authorities in Japan recently arrested someone for using software "bots" to steal virtual possessions in an online game, which were then sold for real money. Crime sweatshops have been established in China and Indonesia where teams send bots on virtual crime sprees.

The online world opens up numerous opportunities, including blogs, personal websites and vlogs, for individuals to post libelous or slanderous comments about individuals and organizations. While libel and slander may be considered minor crimes, the fact is they can cause great damage. A growing number of physicians have brought lawsuits against patients who have posted complaints against them in some form on the Web. These types of claims bring up serious questions about free speech issues, which the courts will increasingly confront.

Copyright infringement crimes will continue to increase in scope and in definition, fostered by technological advances. The recording industry continues to struggle with copyright issues, and the movie and publishing industries are facing their own significant crises. The advent of cell phones that can scan documents and serve as fax machines adds yet another challenge. In the area of patent infringement, there is a growing business of buying up patent portfolios and then suing companies for infringement. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office is about to publish a "storyline patent" application for the first time, which basically gives the applicant claim to a fictional storyline. If the patent is granted, it is likely that other applicants will follow suit, which could lead to patent infringement claims in areas not seen before.

Globalization has reduced many of the obstacles to international crime, as borders have become more porous, and the movement of goods, money and people has become a flood rather than a controlled flow. Global criminal operations are growing their businesses by diversifying, politicizing, gaining social respectability and legitimizing. The kidnapping industry, which was once primarily a Latin American specialty, has gone global. As NGOs and multinational corporations send workers to locales around the world, potential kidnap victims increase in number. Globalization has also led to greater opportunities for corruption and bribe-taking, not to mention money laundering. The World Bank estimates that more than $1 trillion in bribes changes hands annually. Government procurement around the world, with more than $4 trillion spent every year, has huge corruption problems, which are also exacerbated by globalization issues.

Demographics play a significant role in crime, as is widely known. For example, crime tends to fall when the proportion of young people within a population declines. As the global population ages, it will be interesting to see what changes take place in crime statistics. Another demographic factor affecting crime is illegal immigration. As economies improve in developing countries, and jobs become more plentiful, migration declines. Youth unemployment has dropped by more than half in Mexico since 1995, and it is likely that migration from Mexico to the U.S. may begin to decline.

Legal immigration can also be a factor in criminal activity, particularly when formerly homogeneous nations become more heterogeneous through immigration, but do not foster or encourage assimilation. France recently experienced the frustrations of disaffected immigrant youths who seem to have adopted many of the attitudes of gangsta culture -- what Mark Lilla at the University of Chicago calls the "universal culture of the wretched on earth." Other countries are likely to face similar dilemmas. Add continuing and probably increasing terrorism to all this, and societies and business will face crime problems far beyond anything seen in recent memory.

In the twilight zone of the internet and wireless communications, where the real and the virtual are not easily discerned or clearly defined, people will often find themselves in a state of discomfort, or disequilibrium. Fear and disorientation can often be components of discomfort, particularly when people are moving about in unfamiliar territory and when they are faced with fear of pervasive crime.

No organization, business or individual will be untouched by the changes in and expansion of criminal activities. Despite the fact that new methods and technologies are continually devised to combat newly emerging crimes, challenges are likely to increase in frequency and intensity.

Governments and courts around the world will face cases on privacy that come out of tech and biotech advances that are completely new, so there will be no precedents to which the courts can refer. The courts will face the same problem of lack of precedent in assorted copyright and patent infringement cases.

Crimes in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world related to illegal immigration may begin to decline as developing countries grow their economies and become able to offer greater opportunities to their young people. This may be counterbalanced, however, by a lack of assimilation among legal immigrants and by terrorist organizations stepping up recruiting among the unassimilated.

Risk management will need to become both more sophisticated and quicker to respond to the consequences of emerging crimes. There will be increases in business' liability as customers, employers and shareholders find themselves victimized by what they perceive to be inadequate protection of personal information. Institutions and organizations of all types will be more susceptible to blackmail, both at home and abroad, as their constituents realize the power they hold via the Internet. Businesses are likely to see significant increases in security costs as overwhelmed government security and police forces, burdened by costs as well as threats from crime and terrorism, are spread too thin.

Given the tremendous potential for fraud and identity theft as a result of cyber banking practices, some businesses and consumers might seriously consider returning to a cash-based economy. And if this were to occur to any great degree, it is possible that criminals -- having their livelihood based on cyber crimes taken away -- might return to crimes of violence.